Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
USDJPY. As mentioned, a couple of days ago USDJPY has broken bearish out of its rising wedge pattern and likely to test support at 134.25. If it breaks below next support is around 131.50. To reverse this short-term bearish outlook USDJPY needs to move back above the lower rising trendline in the wedge.
EURJPY after being rejected at the rising trend line EURJPY is close to testing support at around 136.85. RSI is showing negative sentiment and is close to break back below 40 threshold strongly indicating a break of the support. If that scenario plays out EURJPY is likely to test key support at around 133.
AUDJPY if breaking below 93.85 next support is at the 0.618 retracement at around 93 possibly down to 92.45 i.e. 0.764 retracement. Key support is 91.40
For AUDJPY to resume uptrend a close above 95.60 is needed.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.