USDJPY forex update USDJPY forex update USDJPY forex update

COT: Speculators raise bets on stronger USD, rising yields

Picture of Ole Hansen
Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Summary:  The week to September 18 saw a dramatic reversal in funds' USD outlook with speculators piling back into long dollar positions. In bonds, leveraged funds continue to look for higher US yields.

Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Forex report for the week ending September 18, click here

To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Financials report for the week ending September 18, click here.

Three weeks of dollar long-liquidation was reversed in the week to September 18 when speculators bought $4 billion against nine IMM currency futures. The buying which occurred just days before the dollar dropped to a 10-week low and took the gross dollar long to an almost 20-month high at $24.2 billion. 

Non-commercial USD position v. nine IMM currency futures
All but CHF and MXN were sold with the EUR returning to neutral while the NZD net-short reached a record and multi-month highs were seen in GBP, AUD, and RUB.  
Funds positioning

In bonds, leveraged funds maintained a record short duration across the US yield curve. The record short in 10-year notes extended further, as the 10-year yield climbed back above 3% while the steepening yield curve attracted some buying interest at the front. 

Leveraged funds maintain a strong belief in higher yields with the combined long-end net-short rising to a record 1.4 million lots last week. 
Fund positioning
In equities all of the three major stock indexes were sold with the net-short in E-mini S&P hitting the highest since January.
Funds positioning


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.