background image background image background image

NY Open: Forget the midterms – it’s the FOMC that matters

Forex 4 minutes to read
MO
Michael O’Neill

FX Trader, Loonieviews.net

Summary:  The US interim elections are grabbing all the headlines though in reality, this week's Fed policy setting meeting is far more important for markets.


Financial markets are aflutter; flapping their wings and scurrying like a turkey a few days before Thanksgiving. Today’s US midterm elections are causing all the fuss and realistically, ”why care?” The world has seen dysfunctional American Congresses before and it didn’t stop turning. At best, the US political drama will be dialled back. Otherwise, it will be business as usual. Arguably, any market reaction will be knee-jerk, and short-lived. 

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting is what matters. Thursday’s policy statement is expected to repeat most of what was written on September 26. Rates will be left unchanged. The recent string of US data has been mixed to firm but not strong enough to spark another bump in rates. However, the statement could be hawkish enough to raise the odds of a December hike which are currently at 72.1%.

The US dollar has been on the defensive since the New York open. AUDUSD added to its gains after the Reserve Bank of Australia tweaked its growth forecast higher. Sterling has been the stand-out performer in a positive Brexit headline-fuelled rally. GBPUSD climbed from 1.3043 to 1.3094 but retreated to 1.3065 as of 14:00 GMT.  UK negotiator Dominic Raab gave a “thumbs up” signal when he left today’s cabinet meeting. His EU counterpart Michel Barnier said he couldn’t say that a deal was close. GBPJPY rallied from 142.85 to 148.24, but as long as prices are below the 14870-90 area, the downtrend from February remains intact.

Wall Street is trading in positive territory. The Nasdaq is leading the way with a 0.64% gain as of 14:00 GMT. Traders do not seem very interested in driving prices very far in either direction and today’s vote gives them the perfect excuse to book an early lunch.
GBPJPY
GBPJPY, daily. Source: Saxo Bank

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • 350x200 peter

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • 350x200 althea

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • 350x200 peter

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • 350x200 charu (1)

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • 350x200 ole

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.