NY Open: Central banks unleash dollar bears

NY Open: Central banks unleash dollar bears

Forex
MO
Michael O’Neill

FX Trader, Loonieviews.net

No one is asking “who let the dogs out?’ The question de jour instead is “who let the dollar bears out?” The US dollar retreated across the major G-10 spectrum since New York opened. The answer may be a combination of US inflation disappointment, the ECB, and Turkish central bank actions.

US August CPI was weaker than expected but the disappointment was tempered to a degree by the robust Initial jobless claims data.
The ECB left rates unchanged to no one’s surprise and confirmed that the net asset purchase program (non-standard) monetary policy would continue until December. Markets were concerned that the program would be extended due to the Turkey crisis. Draghi warned of rising risks from trade disputes, financial market volatility, and emerging market volatility.

Turkey took a big step in alleviating some financial market stress today when they hiked interest rates by 6.25% to 24.0%. USDTRY plunged to 6.0200 from 6.3850.

Wall Street opened with gains led by the Nasdaq which was yesterday’s worst performing index of the US “big three.” The gains are being attributed to improved sentiment stemming from the US offer to restart trade talks with China. The Nasdaq is bolstered by a 1.61% gain in Apple (AAPL: xnas) which more than reversed yesterday’s 1.29% decline.

The Bank of England monetary policy meeting lived up to its “non-event” expectations. They left interest rates unchanged at 0.75% and warned of increased risks from Brexit. 

GBPUSD soared after France’s Europe Minister Nathalie Loiseau said that although the EU27 were united and they won’t bend the rules, there was good will. Stretched short GBPUSD positions may have exacerbated GBPUSD gains from 1.3028 to 1.3122.

USDCAD traded lower in line with the broad greenback weakness, The US/Canada trade talks have stalled, and despite reports to the contrary, access to Canada’s dairy industry and the dispute resolution mechanism continue to be stumbling blocks.

GBPUSD
GBPUSD (source: Saxo Bank)

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.