Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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FX Breakout Monitor: XAU outpaces also strong GBP and JPY
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Summary: The weak euro theme continues and sterling and yen have seen fresh surges on the day that are taking various crosses into breakout mode, while the US dollar has a bit more work to break higher against the smaller currencies and select EM currencies. Meanwhile, gold deserve plenty of our attention in breaking higher across the board against G10 FX lately, in many cases to all-time highs.
Today’s Breakout monitor
The FX Breakout Monitor is a concise PDF overview of all current and recent price breakouts for the short and medium term for major FX pairs and spot silver and gold.
A PDF of today’s Breakout Monitor
Below is a snapshot of the full list of currency pairs we track for the breakout monitor. The Euro downside breakouts continued today as EURUSD, EURJPY and EURCHF have all traded to new local lows. Elsewhere, we note that sterling remains on the move and has recently broken higher versus the CHF and EUR and is looking higher against the latter (EURGBP looking a new post-2016 low close) today again.
The currency most worth paying attention to on the day is gold – which, while still just shy of the recent intraday cycle highs versus the US dollar and well shy of the 2011 high water mark, has been breaking to new all time highs elsewhere lately, against the JPY and EUR, for example, just to name two prominent examples.
Today’s Breakout Highlight: XAUUSD
Gold is on the move today as spot gold versus the US dollar trades close to 1600 dollars again while the precious metals has reached new all-time highs against other currencies recently, including against the EUR and JPY today. While the pair is shy of the intraday high posted over the Iran-US hostilities that broke out at the very beginning of the year, it hasn’t closed as high as the current level as of the below snapshot in nearly 7 years (early 2013) and looks ready for more here on a strong close.
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