background image background image background image

FX Breakout Monitor: JPY gathering strength, NZD pummeled

Forex 5 minutes to read
Picture of John Hardy
John Hardy

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  Today we are looking at JPY strength on the global bond yield decline, as well as NZD weakness.

For a PDF copy of this edition, click here.

The JPY reversal to the strong side we noted yesterday (and which prompted our abandoning of the USDJPY long trade ahead of the stop) has deepened, with EURJPY now suddenly within reach of a downside breakout and AUDJPY in a similar state.

We also have EURUSD on our radar once again as we eye the 1.1300 area lows for a potential break lower.

NZDUSD joins the downside break watchlist as well, while USDSEK is poking at very long term breakout levels to the upside, having leapt higher in recent days on persistent SEK weakness.

Breakout signal tracker

Nothing to add today, with the next potential trades on our radar possibly being EURJPY and EURUSD depending on how the situation develops in the coming days.
Breakout signatures
Source: Saxo Bank
Today’s FX Breakout monitor

Page 1: EURUSD not far from the downside breakout again, but as we have pointed out previously, seeing is believing as the range has persisted for so long and prior breakouts in both directions have failed to follow through significantly.

We also look at EURJPY downside potential on that 123.95 level. We highlighted yesterday’s AUDCAD breakdown and are looking for follow-through lower as we track that signal.
FX Breakouts
Source: Saxo Bank
Page 2: SEK continues to trend and we look at USDSEK below; we are already breaking up locally in recent days, but a very big longer-term level is in view here at 9.5. USDMXN is the first USD/EM to eye an upside break, so stay tuned. 
Source: Saxo Bank
Chart: USDSEK weekly

USDSEK broke free of the local range in recent days, but we zoom out to the weekly chart here to have a look at the potential for a larger scale break of the highs stretching all the way back to late 2016, which could open for a test higher still if USD strength broadens in a context of risk off – particularly if EURUSD 1.1300 falls. Note that the current price is already almost a percentage point above the highest weekly close of the last several months.
Source: Saxo Bank

Interesting levels coming up soon for EURJPY, which is already threatening the rising channel boundary today, but that 19-day low close at 123.95 was the lowest save for the flash-crash lows seen early last month.
Source: Saxo Bank

REFERENCE: FX Breakout Monitor overview explanations

The following is a left-to-right, column by column explanation of the FX Breakout Monitor tables.

Trend: a measure of whether the currency pair is trending up, down or sideways based on an algorithm that looks for persistent directional price action. A currency can register a breakout before it looks like it is trending if markets are choppy.

ATR: Average True Range or the average daily trading range. Our calculation of this indicator uses a 50-day exponential moving average to smooth development. The shading indicates whether, relative to the prior 1,000 trading days, the current ATR is exceptionally high (deep orange), somewhat elevated (lighter orange), normal (no shading), quiet (light blue) or exceptionally quiet (deeper blue).

High Closes / Low Closes:
These columns show the highest and lowest prior 19- and 49-day daily closing levels.  

Breakouts: The right-most several columns columns indicate whether a breakout to the upside or downside has unfolded today (coloured “X”) or on any of the previous six trading days. This graphic indication offers an easy way to see whether the breakout is the first in a series or is a continuation from a prior break. For the “Today” columns for 19-day and 49-day breakouts, if there is no break, the distance from the current “Quote” to the break level is shown in ATR, and coloured yellow if getting close to registering a breakout. NOTE: although the Today column may show a breakout in action, the daily close is the key level that is the final arbiter on whether the breakout is registered for subsequent days.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.