OTC Derivatives Trading
Summary: XAUUSD started the year with a break higher. Vols starts the year bid but we see more potential for higher vols if spot would continue higher.
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly FX Options Market Update reports covering changes and updates on the FX Options and FX Volatility market. They describe changes in FX volatility levels, risk premium and ideas how to trade based on these.
The main theme for December was weaker USD trades and we see the same focus at the start of 2021. Main moves for the dollar over the last month have been against EM, metals and commodity currencies. Gold started December bouncing off the 1780 support and traded up to the top of the channel and then started 2021 with a clear break up above the resistance.
Vols jumped higher on the break, from relative low levels, with 1 month up 2 vol to 18.25. 1 month traded above 22 vol back in August when spot was on the highs. Risk reversals haven’t picked up on the break and trades around same levels as end of December, 1 month is currently around 1.5 vol for XAU calls, compared to 3.5 highs back in August. The risk premium is currently around 4 vol, but keep in mind that includes a few quiet days over the holidays which limit the realize vol.
We still could see vol move higher if spot continues higher even after the last day spike in vol. We see good value in the risk reversal at these levels, either buying calls and finance it with selling some puts or buying lower deltas call for a more bullish trade. Also call-flies offer good value for a less bullish trade with no risk except the premium paid for the structure.
Some trade examples for higher XAUUSD:
Buy 3 months 2100 XAUUSD call
Cost 2800 pips
Buy 1 month 2000 XAUUSD call
Sell 1 month 1850 XAUUSD put
Cost 1240 pips
Buy 1 month 1950 XAUUSD call in 1 unit
Sell 1 month 2000 XAUUSD call in 2 units
Buy 1 month 2050 XAUUSD call in 1 unit
Cost 1100 pips
Spot ref. 1941.80
You should be aware that in purchasing Foreign Exchange Options, your potential loss will be the amount of the premium paid for the option, plus any fees or transaction charges that are applicable, should the option not achieve its strike price on the expiry date
If you write an option, the risk involved is considerably higher than buying an option. You may be liable for margin to maintain your position and a loss may be sustained well in excess of the premium received.
By writing an option, you accept a legal obligation to purchase or sell the underlying asset if the option is exercised against you; however far the market price has moved away from the strike. If you already own the underlying asset that you have contracted to sell, your risk will be limited.
If you do not own the underlying asset the risk can be unlimited. Only experienced persons should contemplate writing uncovered options, then only after securing full detail of the applicable conditions and potential risk exposure.
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As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
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