Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
European Equities markets are a bit of a mixed bag.
DAX is holding above the support at around 15.834. RSI still bullish , no divergence and ahs not broken below its rising trend line. If the leading German index breaks below support we could selling pressure down to around 15.500
AEX Amsterdam is at the time of writing trading below its support at around 788.40 after being rejected at 810. A close below will confirm the bearish picture with next support at around 756.
RSI has been rejected at 60 threshold and is indicating bearish sentiment.
Despite being rejected at previous highs around 4.400 BEL20 is keeping the uptrend alive holding up above support at around 4.240. RSI above rising trend line but could test it next few days. MACD line is close to cross over Signal line which would indicate bear trend.
CAC40. Despite RSI breaking below rising trend line the Index itself is trading close to all- time highs. However, if CAC closes below minor support at around 7.141 selling pressure could be fueled. 7.000 and rising trend line would be next support.
Leading Swiss Index SMI broke below its short term rising trend line and what looks like a rising Wedge. Similarly RSI broke below its trend line.
However, the selling after breakout of the wedge has not been convincing and if markets crawls back above the rising trendline the rising Wedge pattern (reversal) scenario will likely be busted.
If selling pressure picks up next support is at around 12.411
OMXC25 Cap has taken some beating the past week. It started with a Bearish Engulfing candle on the second trading day in the new year followed by more selling.
RSI got rejected at the 60 threshold i.e. maintaining the bearish sentiment it commenced in November. Currently trading below 200 SMA next support is at around 1.800.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.