Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - Gold to 2,500 or larger correction? Silver range bound, correction or push to 31?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
- Gold has closed higher in the past few days but still below all-time highs. Upside potential to around 2,500. Key support at 2,319 for a correction
- Silver range bound. Key support at 27.59. Above 29.09 a push above 30-31 is in the cards
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Gold (XAUUSD) is edging towards its all-time high at around USD 2,431, having made new higher closes over the past few days.
Despite this, the strength indicator RSI is suggesting potential uptrend exhaustion by showing divergence, which occurs when RSI values decline while the gold price continues to rise. However, as long as gold does not close below 2,319, the uptrend remains intact and could potentially push prices higher.
Gold is currently testing the 0.618 retracement level of the massive volatility experienced on the 12th and 15th April, at 2,390. Should gold break above 2,432, there could be room for a rise up to 2,497, which is the 1.618 projection of that volatile corrective movement.
Conversely, a close below USD 2,319 could trigger heavy selling in gold, with short-term potential dropping to around 2,260-2,255, representing the 0.382 and 0.618 retracement levels respectively.
Silver (XAGUSD) is displaying a technical scenario quite similar to gold, although it is not trading near its all-time highs.
Silver was rejected at the 0.618 retracement level of the volatility from 12th-15th April (green Fibonacci levels).
A break above USD 29.03 could likely ignite a new rally towards USD 30.64-31.16. The key question remains whether silver can sustain closes at these higher levels.
The RSI is showing minor divergence, but if it closes above its falling trendline, new highs could be expected for silver. The USD 29.80-30.10 area is identified as strong resistance, as seen on the weekly chart. Maybe too strong to close above
On the other hand, the weekly RSI also suggests higher silver prices in the coming weeks and months, with positive sentiment and no divergence observed.
Key support is at around 27.59. A break below this level is likely to lead to a sell-off down to the 0.618 retracement at USD 26.41
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