Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
CAC40/FRA40cfd is trading very similar to DAX with the Index hovering around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Do gain further upside CAC needs to break above 6,680. That would most likely lead to a test of the 200 daily Simple Moving Average (SMA) just below 6,800 and a possible test of the Neckline of the Shoulder-Head -Shoulder pattern.
However, current resistance could be too strong , RSI (Strength Indicator) is still below 60 threshold i.e. still in bearish sentiment. A break below 6,460 will most likely lead to bear trend to resume.
Contrary to DAX and CAC40, AEX25/NETH25cfd seems to be struggling bouncing much above the 0.382 retracement. Will it reach 0.50 retracement? Jury’s still out though. However, RSI below 60 i.e bearish sentiment and if AEX drops back below 700 the bear trend is likely to resume
BEL20 has bounced stronger than most other European markets. Above 0.764 retracement and close to the strong resistance at around 4,155. RSI is flirting with the 60 bull/bear threshold but is likely to be rejected. If BEL20 closes the gap between two dashed lines bear trend is to resume.
SMI20/SWISS20 cfd is trading above 0.764 retracement around both the 200 and 55 SMA. Strong resistance at 12,422.
If RSI cannot close above 60 threshold bears are likely to regain control.
Italy40cfd is trading around 0.50 retracement trying to push higher. Some resistance at 25,065 and strong resistance at around 26K. If the Index trades below 23,821 bears are likely to regain control sending the Index towards previous lows.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.