Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
DAX found buyers just above 14K yesterday. However, selling pressure is likely to resume. RSI showing bearish sentiment and if DAX closes below key support at 13,989 RSI is likely back below 40 threshold. That is likely to fuel selling further pushing DAX towards February lows in what is likely to be 5 wave down.
Underlying sentiment is bearish with both 55, 100 and 200 SMA’s declining.
For DAX to reverse the bearish picture a close above 15K is needed.
CAC 40 got rejected at the 0.764 retracement and got pushed back below 200 SMA. 55 SMA has crossed below 200. A clear sign of underlying bearish sentiment. A bounce towards the end to the session yesterday to close above support at 6,496 and the 0.50 retracement gave a bit of relief this morning. However, selling pressure is likely to resume and is likely to intensify if CAC is being pushed below 6,420.
AEX closed just above key support at 718. Another break below and especially if AEX closes below is likely to fuel sell-off. RSI was rejected at 60 threshold a couple of time and has now broken its rising trend line which indicates bear trend to resume.
BEL20 has performed better than most European Indices but might have come to an end with yesterday’s sell off pushing BEL20 below 200 SMA and bearish out of the short term rising channel. Support at around 4,094.
Expect buyers to try lifting the Index back in the channel. If they succeed the Index could push towards 4,300.
Swiss SMI is in an uptrend testing key resistance at 12,411. If SMI closes above the uptrend is further confirmed with potential to break above 12,500.
RSI is above 60 indicating SMI could move higher. However, if the Index moves below 200 SMA key support at 12,069 is likely to come under pressure
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.