Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
For DAX to reverse medium-term down trend a close above 13,565 is needed.
GER40 cfd/DAX future closed Friday above falling trendline. Strong resistance at around 13,570. RSI showing positive sentiment with no divergence indicates higher levels.
However, if GER40 slides back below the falling trendline followed by a close below 12,938 the current short-term uptrend could resume.
If RSI closes below its rising trend line that would confirm that picture.
EuroStoxx50 has reached 1.618 projection of the double bottom pattern. There is room up till strong resistance around 3,683. A correction over the next couple of days should be expected.
RSI is showing positive sentiment with no divergence but if RSI closes below its rising trendline selling pressure could resume and accelerate. If EuroStoxx50 drops back below 3,558 support at around 3,484 is likely to be tested.
It is followed by a close below 3,422 bear trend is confirmed, and September low is likely to be tested.
Medium-term EuroStoxx50 bounced off 0.786 retracement now hovering around its 200 weekly SMA. To confirm uptrend a close above 3,683 is needed for a move towards 3,820-3,857.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.