Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Will the Santa Claus rally continue in the new year? - European Equities
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
DAX bounced strongly off its important support at around 15.100 and followed through with moves above both the 200 and 55 Simple Moving Averages (SMA). There has been some consolidation around resistance at around 15.834.
The bounce from 15.100 has formed a double bottom like pattern and after the closing above 15.834 and the confirmation of and uptrend (higher highs and higher lows) there is potential to new All-time highs in the region of 16.425 and 16.600. RSI needs to close above 60 for further confirmation of the uptrend.
A close below 15.834 could see selling pressure down to 15.500 potentially lower.
CAC-40 bounced off the lower rising trend line around 6.750 jumping to new All-Time highs.
RSI above 60 with no divergence indicates higher levels going in to the new year are likely.
AEX Amsterdam Index bounced off its 200 SMA and resumed the uptrend. Minor resistance at around 810. A close above and we are likely to see new All-Time highs.
A close below 788 could see the Index drop back to around the 200 SMA.
The leading Belgian Stock Index BEL20 has experienced a strong bounce from the strong support at around 4.100. RSI is above 60 supporting the uptrend that is likely to t4st All-Time Highs in coming weeks. Support at 4.240.
Contrary to most other Indices the leading Swiss stock Index SMI20 did not experience same selling pressure before Christmas. The Index is rising in what seems to be a rising wedge like pattern. However, if the uptrend continues with the Index breaking above the rising trend line the pattern which is a top and reversal pattern (but not yet confirmed) busted.
No divergence on RSI indicates higher levels in coming weeks. Strong support at around 12.411
OMX C25 bounced strongly off support at around 1.800. (Big volatility on that day was due to Novo Nordisk). At the time of writing RSI is back above 60 and a close above confirms the uptrend that is likely to test all time highs. Some support at around 1.943 previous resistance level and 55 SMA.
RSI Divergence explained: When an indicator such as RSI is displaying lower peaks while the underlying price is still making new highs. It is a sign of imbalance in the market, the strength of the trend is weakening. It could be an indicating of an ending of a trend. However, imbalances in financial markets can go on for quite some time. To cancel Divergence out RSI must either 1. Make a new high simultaneously with the price or 2. Close below 40 threshold.
Same can be observed in bear market just here market makes a new low but Indicator doesn’t.
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