Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
The Hang Seng Index broke out bullish of the falling wedge like pattern formed over the past 6 weeks. Index closed the day above its resistance at around 24,385 indicating we could see further upside.
RSI closed above 60 threshold supporting the new uptrend which has short term potential up to the 25,745 – 26,125 area.
For the bullish break out scenario to be demolished Hang Seng needs to drop back in the Wedge.
If that scenario plays out we could see another attempt at testing December low at around 22,665
Nikkei 225 seems to be trading in a wide slightly rising channel hovering around both the 55 and 200 SMA’s.
RSI still indicating bearish sentiment however, since it hasn’t broken above 60 threshold, indicating we could see some downwards pressure. An Index close below 28,089 will reverse the current slightly bullish uptrend.
The bullish break out in S&P ASX 200 Index didn’t last long before it got beaten back down below the 7,500 level.
It seems to have found support at the short term rising trend line, however but could be hit by another wave of selling if the Index closes below 7,355.
However, RSI is still indicating bullish sentiment and the Index value is above both 55 and 200 SMA indicating the 7.355 support to hold. A close above 7.500 could re-ignite the uptrend.