Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Copper have turned bearish and could drop to strong support at 372.
A correction in Gold and Silver has been looming for a couple weeks by now, but Buyers have been too strong to give in lifting the precious metals to close above key supports. But this week might be the time when Sellers will take control.
Key support in Gold 1,981 and Silver 24,64
Copper has been hit by heavy selling after being rejected at the resistance at around 416. Broken below short-term rising trendline and fast approaching minor support at around 382.
RSI is below 40 threshold and if closing below sentiment is negative. Copper could drop to key strong support 372 .
For Copper to demolish this bearish picture a close above the rising trend line and above 55 Moving Average is needed.
Gold. A correction has been looming in Gold for quite some time as indicated by both the Bearish Engulfing top and reversal pattern and the RSI divergence but the sell-off/correction has not yet materialised.
The precious metal has dipped below the support at around 1,981 three times the past week only to close back above. Sellers will quite possibly have another go next couple of days.
If Gold closes below 1,981 it could fuel a sell-off down to the 0.618 retracement at around 1,897. Strong support at around 1,949. Keep an eye on that level as it could prove too strong to break.
55 daily Moving Average is rising indicating underlying bullish sentiment.
For Gold to resume and extend uptrend a close above 2,050 is needed.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
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Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.