Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Brent Crude oil is testing 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and resistance at around $123. RSI is back above 60 threshold i.e. bullish sentiment with no divergence indicating March highs at around $139.13 is likely to be tested over the summer. Minor resistance at around 129
WTI Light Sweet Crude oil is at the time of writing trading well above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at around $116.38. With higher highs and higher lows and RSI above 60 uptrend is confirmed. No divergence on RSI indicates WQTI oil is likely to test March highs.
Gasoline has performed a new highs with no obvious resistance levels. However, 1.382 Fibonacci projection of the March correction indicates first target at around $427.40. However, further upside to the 1.618 projection at around 451 is not unlikely. To reverse the uptrend Gasoline needs to close below $362.
Dutch TTF Gas seems to bounce off from the support around €84. However, upside picture is not convincing, Dutch Gas needs to at least break above the falling trend line.
When the price moves have been that extreme as we have seen in Dutch Gas it is sometime useful to look at intra day time periods for levels and trends.
On the 1 hour chart an uptrend seems to be building with resistance at the 200 SMA and at around €97.94. A break above 200 SMA could be first indication of further upside which will be confirmed if we see a break above resistance at 97.94.
Henry Hub Gas seems to have peaked. Twice it has spiked higher but failed to close above $9.Divergence on RSI indicates a reversal i.e. a down wards correction. A daily close below 7.85 will confirm trend reversal
However, if Henry Hub Gas manages to close above $9 and RSI closes above its falling trendline new highs should be expected.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.