Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Platinum challenges downtrend from 2011
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Spot platinum has popped higher this morning, thereby challenging the downtrend from 2011, while breaking above previous resistance at $877/oz
That resistance level is now support and the pop higher is happening as relative value traders take a closer a look at the deep discounts to both gold an palladium. We have seen no particular trigger behind the move which is likely to be momentum and spread driven.
Our breakout model is going long PLN9 on a daily close above $879.9 (with an initial stop at $782.5). However with the disclaimer that the average signal p/l based on our back testing has yielded an average return per signal of -2.2% since 2003.
With gold currently struggling to break higher amid recent dollar and stock market strength traders have instead cast their eye on relative value plays. With silver still stuck in the mud despite trading close to a multi decade low relative to gold, the focus has instead moved to platinum. Not least because of all the attention the Platinum Group Metals have received recently with the tight-fundamental-driven surge in palladium. On that basis a renewed bid in gold, especially if it manages to break back above $1,300 may benefit platinum more than the yellow metal itself.
Our breakout model is going long PLN9 on a daily close above $879.9 (with an initial stop at $782.5). However with the disclaimer that the average signal p/l based on our back testing has yielded an average return per signal of -2.2% since 2003.
With gold currently struggling to break higher amid recent dollar and stock market strength traders have instead cast their eye on relative value plays. With silver still stuck in the mud despite trading close to a multi decade low relative to gold, the focus has instead moved to platinum. Not least because of all the attention the Platinum Group Metals have received recently with the tight-fundamental-driven surge in palladium. On that basis a renewed bid in gold, especially if it manages to break back above $1,300 may benefit platinum more than the yellow metal itself.
Total holdings in exchange-traded funds backed by platinum has jumped by 28% since the December low to reach a record 92 metric tons. This occurred during a time where the discounts to gold and palladium both reached record highs before contracting.
From a technical perspective the gold-platinum spread, which reached a record $525 on February 14 and which is currently trading $410, could reach $350 before finding the first level of resistance.
Money manager,s meanwhile, in the week to March 26 increased their bullish bets by 8,351 lots to 11,445 lots, a one-year high.
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2026
-
-
Outrageous Predictions
A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi... -
Outrageous Predictions
Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral... -
Outrageous Predictions
Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril... -
Outrageous Predictions
Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash... -
Outrageous Predictions
Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w... -
Outrageous Predictions
SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-... -
Outrageous Predictions
China unleashes CNY 50 trillion stimulus to reflate its economy
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Having created history’s most epic debt bubble, China boldly bets that fiscal stimulus to the tune o...