Products
Platforms
Accounts
Inspiration
About
Support
For institutions
Log in Open account
International
CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. 
Show more
CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX, or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Show less
Crude oil trades higher on stock drop and Iran

Crude oil trades higher on stock drop and Iran

Commodities 5 minutes to read
Picture of Ole Hansen
Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Summary:  WTI crude oil trades up by 2% ahead of the “Weekly Petroleum Status Report” from the US Energy Information Administration.

WTI crude oil trades up by 2% ahead of the “Weekly Petroleum Status Report” from the US Energy Information Administration at 14:30 GMT. Expectations for another price supportive drop in stocks was strengthened last night after the American Petroleum Institute reported a nationwide stockpile drop of 8.13 million barrels. Somewhat higher than the 2.9-million-barrel estimate found in a Bloomberg survey ahead of the EIA report. 

Also, today Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will begin his two-day testimony to Congress on the state of the US economy. The text will be released at 12:30 GMT and his remarks, given the current global rate debate, will be watched closely across all markets, including the energy sector.  
Oil Update
The April to June sell-off in crude oil was driven by a deteriorating outlook for global growth and with that demand for oil. In their latest ‘Short-Term Energy Outlook’ released yesterday, the EIA further reduced the 2019 outlook for global oil demand by 200k barrels/day to 1.1 million barrels/day. Monthly oil market reports from Opec on Thursday and the IEA on Friday will add some additional colour from these three most closely watched market forecasters. 
Oil Update
Source: Opec, IEA, EIA
The Opec+ group’s decision to extend production cuts for another nine months and the above-mentioned fourth consecutive weekly drop in US crude stocks are currently two key drivers of support. On top of that, the ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran continue to add a still unquantifiable level of support. These potential risks could lead to a supply slowdown, should shipments through the Strait of Hormuz be threatened.

Looking at the WTI chart below, we find the early July sell-off has been reversed with the price once taking aim at the key psychological level around $60/b. While geopolitical risks and lower US stocks may provide support the challenging economic outlook may still prevent the market from mounting a break at this time.
Oil Update
Source: Saxo Bank
Comments and charts related to the outcome of the EIA report will be posted on Twitter @ole_s_hansen.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
    Read full article
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Read full article
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    Read full article
  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Read full article
  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Read full article
  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Read full article
  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Read full article
  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Read full article
  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Read full article
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Read full article

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International
Products & pricing
Platforms
Accounts & service
General
Other
Legal

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.