background image background image background image

Technical Update - US, UK & German Bund 10-year yields plus US 30-year

Bonds 4 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  US 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields in uptrends eyeing even higher levels
Is UK 10-year Gilt yields moving higher or forming a reversal pattern?
10-year Bund yields forming a rising channel. Strong resistance at 2.75

US 10-year Treasury yields have broken above resistance at around 4.09. If closing above the road is paved to October 2022 peak and 1.618 projection of the latest correction at around 4.30.

There is some resistance at around 4.22 which is also the 1.382 projection.
RSI is showing positive sentiment without divergence indicating higher levels are highly likely.   

us10y d 0308
Source: Saxo Group

30-year Treasury yields uptrend is close to be testing 2022 peak at around 4.38.
RSI is positive and with no divergence indicating likely higher yields.  A move to the 1.382 projection at around 4.75 could be seen. The 4.75 level is also around the level where yields where rejected 4 times between 2008 and 2011. A strong resistance level.

The RSI indicator: Historically, every time RSI has reached the 80 level (dashed blue line) a correction has hit yields. That scenario could play out again if yields are reaching the 4.75 level.
To demolish this bullish scenario a daily close below 3.80 is needed.

us30y d 0308
Source: Bloomberg

UK 10-year Gilt yields correction has bounced just above the key support at around 4.10. The correction came after RSI divergence on the uptrend from May through July.

Uptrend seems to have resumed but an RSI close above 60 threshold is needed to confirm that.
If the 10-year Gilt yields close above the 0.618 retracement at around 4.50 that scenario is likely to play out. And if it does a move to the 1.382 projection at around 4.93 could be seen.

However, if closing below 4.10 10-year Gilt yields could have formed a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder reversal pattern and a move down to 3.70-3.60 is likely

uk10y d 0308
Source: Bloomberg

10-year Bund yields are forming a rising channel supported by bullish RSI i.e., pointing to higher levels. A move to test the upper rising trend line ant the strong resistance at around 2.75 seems likely.
To reverse the bullish trend a close below 2.30 is needed .

german10y d 0308
Source: Bloomberg

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • 350x200 peter

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • 350x200 althea

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • 350x200 peter

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • 350x200 charu (1)

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • 350x200 ole

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.