Technical Update - US 2-, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields and German 10-year Bund yields pointing lower Technical Update - US 2-, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields and German 10-year Bund yields pointing lower Technical Update - US 2-, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields and German 10-year Bund yields pointing lower

Technical Update - US 2-, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields and German 10-year Bund yields pointing lower

Bonds 4 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  US Treasury yields have taken out key support levels and have now confirmed bearish trends.
German Bund yields still in uptrend but breaking rising trendline

US 2-year Treasury yields have closed below key support at around 4.75. A move down to support at around 4.57 and the 200 Daily Moving Average seems likely.

RSI below 40 threshold is confirming the bearish trend

To reverse the bearish trend a close above 4.92 is needed


us2TY d 2911
Source: Saxo Group

US 10-year Treasury yields have closed below 4.36 key support level and RSI closed below 40 threshold thereby confirming downtrend.

Yields are also below the 100 DMA for the first time since May.
There is now downside risk to support at around 4.07 but 4% could be tested. The 200 DMA will add to the support.

For 10-year yields to reverse to uptrend a close above 4.52 is needed.

us10TY d 2911
Source: Saxo Group

US 30-year Treasury yields have been in a downtrend since breaking below 4.60 and further confirmed since RSI closed below 40.
Currently testing support at around 4.47. A close below can lead to further downside possibly down to strong support at 4.18 with minor support at 4.30

For US 30-year yields to reverse the trend a close above 4.83
A close above 4.62 will pause or demolish the bearish scenario

us30TY d 2911
Source: Bloomberg

German 10-year Bund yields have broken below its short-term rising trendline. There has been RSI divergence for quite some time indicating a weakening and possible exhaustion of the bullish trend
Maybe that was the peak. However, RSI is still above 40 threshold i.e., in positive sentiment, a close below 40 will change that.

Some support at the 0.618 retracement at 2.34 and at the 0.786 at 2.15.
Strong support at around 1.92-1.74.

If the Bund yields move back above the lower rising trendline the reversal pattern could be in jeopardy. A close above 3.025 will resume uptrend
german10y d 2911
Source: Bloomberg


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.