Chief Investment Officer
Summary: The Chinese is ignoring all of overtures made by Donald Trump & fixed USDCNH at all time high this morning.
See article below the video
What: The Chinese is ignoring all of overtures made by Donald Trump and fixed USDCNH at all time high this morning and with 240 pips (See table below) - Again a big and important point considering that USDCNY/CNH is best gauge of real status of trade talks
Action: Sell rallies in equities - two strategies possible: 1. Medium-term: Sell on @market 7575.00 with stop/loss of 1 ATR : 175 points 2. Short-term sell market with stop/loss @7653 close
USDCNY Fixing – today’s fixing the biggest “devaluation” including the risk-off August 5 & 6th!
Lead story in Global Time: Why are Chinese brushing aside Trump's Tweets?
I have read ALL English version of Chinese newspapers....and here story from South China Morning post:
Considering all the President Trump talk of new talks/deal I haven’t found a single notice of this or even mentioning of contact which to me mean they ignore it and it’s very unlikely there is real contact as China condition are clear :
Tariffs must be substantially reduced or eliminated….
China have over and over said there are three (really four) conditions:
Source: Gavekal
Hence September 1st is still key date and of course October 1st – don’t forget either that October is the 70th Anniversary of China’s Communist Party, now is not the time for China to “fold” especially as President Trump continues to show his weak hand.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
