The Saxo Weekly Market Compass
1 December 2025 (recap week of 24–28 November 2025)

Where markets have been — and where they’re heading.

Headlines & introduction

Markets ended November on a calmer footing as Fed-cut expectations firmed, volatility retreated and equities drifted higher into the shortened Thanksgiving week. US tech leadership remained uneven but supportive, Europe extended its upward bias, and Asia delivered a mixed performance. Crypto markets stabilised after earlier turbulence, while metals benefited from falling yields and tightening supply conditions. Investors now enter December facing a dense macro and earnings calendar that could set the tone for year-end positioning.
Market pulse: a steady week with sentiment shaped primarily by policy expectations and macro signals.

Equities

US tech support meets broad European gains and notable local-market moves.
US equities advanced early in the week as softer economic data strengthened expectations for a December rate cut. AI-linked names remained supportive, with gains across software, cloud and hardware, while select semiconductors saw a mid-week consolidation. A shortened Friday session brought lighter volumes and modest further gains, helped by strong interest in chipmakers and stabilising mega-cap leadership.

Europe delivered one of its more resilient weeks, buoyed by softer inflation prints and steadier global yields. Regional leaders included the Netherlands, where the AEX rose on strength in large-cap industrials and semiconductors, and France, where consumer and luxury names added support. Belgium’s BEL 20 closed the week largely unchanged but remained firmly positive for November, helped by pockets of strength in biotech and materials. Italy’s FTSE MIB ended the week slightly softer yet posted a solid overall monthly performance, driven by banks and energy.

The UK’s FTSE 100 benefited from metals strength and supportive macro signals, while Denmark lagged due to weakness in prominent healthcare names. Elsewhere in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei rose on expectations of fiscal support and steady corporate demand, while Hong Kong faded late in the week as property and consumer names weighed after a strong early run.
Market pulse: a constructive backdrop, with local European markets contributing meaningfully beneath the surface.

Volatility

Volatility cooled as markets entered the holiday period.
The VIX declined from elevated mid-November levels, drifting into the mid-teens as risk appetite steadied and near-term headline risks eased. Short-dated volatility measures also reset sharply lower, reflecting reduced demand for immediate protection around the Thanksgiving window. SPX options priced relatively contained expected ranges, consistent with calmer sentiment.

Skew remained balanced. Early-week expiries showed a modest preference for puts, but by Friday the structure had normalised as investors rolled or lightened hedges rather than adding fresh downside insurance. Longer-dated downside protection stayed in focus, underscoring continued preference for hedged exposure rather than outright optimism.
Market pulse: reduced day-to-day tension but persistent longer-term prudence.

Digital assets

Crypto markets found stability as ETF flows improved.
Bitcoin spent the week oscillating within a narrow range around the high USD 80,000s to low USD 90,000s, supported by modest inflows into leading spot ETFs. Ethereum traded close to USD 3,000, with its major ETF stabilising after earlier outflows. Cleaner derivatives positioning and steadier macro conditions helped improve sentiment across the sector.

Alt-coins saw moderate gains before consolidating, with solana, XRP and dogecoin moving higher in early-week trading. Crypto-equity proxies such as exchanges and miners showed tactical strength but largely mirrored bitcoin’s direction. Security considerations remained present across the ecosystem, though they did not dominate market behaviour during the trading week.
Market pulse: stabilisation prevailed, yet confidence remained sensitive to both flows and operational risks.

Fixed income

US yields eased while Japanese bonds stayed under pressure.
US Treasury yields moved lower early in the week as soft consumer and labour-market data reinforced the case for near-term monetary easing. The 10-year yield briefly tested levels just below 4%, while the 2-year approached mid-month lows before stabilising. A strong two-year auction helped maintain the downward trend, and futures markets continued to assign a high probability to a December rate cut.

Japanese government bond yields remained elevated as markets prepared for potential policy normalisation. The 2-year yield hovered near cycle highs and the 10-year stayed above 1.8%. UK Gilts steadied after the latest Budget confirmed issuance below expectations, while euro-area yields were mixed in light liquidity conditions.
Market pulse: bond markets consolidated a more dovish Fed view while keeping a cautious eye on BOJ developments.

Commodities

Metals outperformed as supply tightness met lower yields.
Precious and industrial metals were among the top-performing assets. Silver, platinum and gold extended their gains, supported by lower real yields, persistent supply constraints and renewed interest from long-term investors. Copper pushed to fresh highs, driven by tightening global availability and operational disruptions flagged across key producing regions.

Oil traded in a narrow range as markets weighed geopolitical developments, the broader demand picture and expectations heading into the next OPEC+ decision window. Agriculture was quieter, with limited fresh catalysts from weather or demand data.
Market pulse: metals remained a standout, anchored by a combination of macro support and tightening supply.

Currencies

USD softened broadly while policy divergence guided moves.
The dollar drifted lower through the week, pressured by weaker macro data and declining yields. Sterling strengthened ahead of domestic fiscal developments, while the Australian dollar gained on firmer inflation data. The New Zealand dollar rallied following a policy meeting interpreted as a “hawkish cut”, prompting repricing across key cross pairs.

The yen remained relatively weak through most of the trading week, with currency markets awaiting clearer signals on potential December BOJ action. A sharper yen adjustment followed only after week-end developments, setting the stage for heightened early-December volatility.
Market pulse: FX trading reflected diverging policy paths, with the yen poised for re-evaluation.

Key takeaways

• Equities drifted higher, with strong contributions from local European markets.
• Volatility eased meaningfully, with near-term measures resetting lower.
• Bitcoin and Ethereum stabilised as ETF flows improved.
• US yields fell toward one-month lows; Japanese yields stayed elevated.
• Metals outperformed strongly, led by silver and copper.
• The dollar weakened broadly; yen dynamics likely to shift in early December.

Weekend developments relevant for early December:

• A DeFi exploit at a major protocol occurred over the weekend, raising early-month caution across parts of the crypto market.
• BOJ Governor Ueda signalled that a December rate hike is under active consideration, elevating the potential for renewed yen volatility.

Overall market pulse: steady progress through the trading week, followed by weekend catalysts that could reshape early-December sentiment.

Looking ahead (week of 1–5 December 2025)

A pivotal week for consumer data, labour signals and central-bank communication.
This week brings a dense macro calendar that will guide early-December positioning. Monday’s US and global manufacturing PMIs offer an initial read on industrial momentum. Wednesday’s ADP employment report and Thursday’s jobless claims will serve as the main labour indicators ahead of the delayed US nonfarm payrolls release on 16 December. Friday’s consumer sentiment and consumer credit data will give a fresh view on household strength after the Thanksgiving–Cyber Monday spending period.

With the FOMC meeting approaching, markets will scrutinise comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other officials for any final policy cues. Rate-cut expectations remain high, but policymakers may emphasise data dependency given recent mixed indicators.

In equities, investors will monitor earnings from major software and cybersecurity firms including Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Marvell, MongoDB, Okta and Pure Storage, offering insights into AI-driven enterprise demand. Results from Dollar Tree, Dollar General and Victoria’s Secret will shed light on consumer behaviour across income segments following a strong holiday-sales period.

Outside the US, Japanese data and BOJ communication will be followed closely after weekend remarks heightened expectations of a December rate increase. European PMIs and national inflation prints may also influence regional markets, particularly given the strong performance of local indices through late November.
Market pulse: early December is set to be shaped by a convergence of macro data, policy signals and AI-heavy earnings.

Conclusion

The final week of November brought calmer markets, steadier yields and broad if modest equity gains, with Europe showing particular resilience beneath the surface. Volatility retreated and digital assets stabilised, while metals extended their strong performance. As December opens, the focus turns to a dense macro calendar, pivotal earnings from AI-linked names and evolving central-bank narratives in both the US and Japan. With positioning relatively clean but event risk elevated, investors enter the final month of the year with conditions favourable but far from settled.