Weekly market recap & what’s ahead

15 September 2025 (recap of 8 to 12 September 2025)

Headlines & introduction

Markets climbed to new highs last week as inflation data supported growing expectations for the Fed’s first rate cut of 2025, likely due this Wednesday. Softer PPI and CPI prints, weakening labour data, and dovish central bank rhetoric drove sentiment. Tech stocks soared on AI momentum, while volatility eased. Meanwhile, Europe held firm despite France’s downgrade, and Asia saw mixed action as China struggled to maintain its recovery narrative. Digital assets gained modestly, aided by ETF inflows and IPO enthusiasm. Traders now brace for the pivotal Fed decision, Powell’s guidance, and fresh macro data.

The week set the stage for a decisive Fed moment ahead.

Equities

AI momentum and CPI relief fuel record highs. US equities rallied, with the S&P 500 closing at 6,587.5 (+0.9%) on 11 Sep, lifted by Oracle (+36%), Micron (+7.6%), and Tesla (+6.0%), as softer CPI (+0.4% m/m) strengthened rate-cut bets. Warner Bros Discovery surged 29% on 11 Sep amid M&A chatter. Healthcare and consumer names like Centene (+9%) also shined. Europe posted smaller gains; the STOXX 600 rose 0.6% on 11 Sep, aided by Stellantis (+9%), while Novartis (−2.9%) and SAP (−2.9%) lagged. Asia’s tone was upbeat: Hang Seng hit a four-year high midweek, and Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.2% on 11 Sep.

Market pulse: Equity momentum remains intact, but all eyes turn to the Fed.

Volatility

VIX calm despite CPI, but Fed looms large. Volatility faded through the week. The VIX fell to 14.71 on 11 Sep, down 4.17% as SPX climbed and CPI came in as expected. Short-dated gauges like VIX1D dropped 24.7%, reflecting reduced near-term hedging. Still, intraday spikes persisted—VIX1D had surged 50% to 13.4 on 10 Sep ahead of CPI, before fading. Despite these jitters, skew stayed flat and realized vol stayed muted. Into Fed week, SPX options priced a ±73-point range to Friday, implying contained risk unless Powell surprises.

Market pulse: Volatility feels contained—but event risk is high mid-week.

Digital assets

Crypto range-bound with institutional bid. Bitcoin hovered near $115.5k on 11 Sep, stable after ETF inflows into IBIT (+$113m on 11 Sep). Ethereum firmed to $4,522, with ETHA reversing earlier outflows. Solana rallied 4.3% on 11 Sep as Galaxy Digital committed $530m, fueling “Solana season” talk. Meanwhile, Gemini and Figure IPOs kept institutional appetite in focus. Options markets prepared for a $3.4bn BTC expiry on 11 Sep, but sentiment remained cautious, with skew favouring puts and altcoin gains limited. Regulatory and on-chain developments continued to blur the TradFi-DeFi line.

Market pulse: Crypto markets hold steady as institutions quietly accumulate.

Fixed income

Yields dip on CPI but rebound into Fed week. US Treasury yields fell midweek as inflation data firmed cut expectations: the 10-year yield hit 4.06% on 11 Sep, before rebounding on 12 Sep. The 2-year yield dipped to 3.47%, ending at 3.55% as markets priced 25bps cuts at all remaining Fed meetings. Europe’s front-end yields climbed slightly post-ECB, with the German 2-year Schatz closing at 2.02%, while French risk remained elevated. In Asia, Japanese 10-year yields edged up near 1.65% highs, while short-end JGBs stayed pinned near 0.88%.

Market pulse: Bonds are treading water, waiting for Powell’s tone on Wednesday.

Commodities

Metals shine, oil slips, coffee spikes. Gold hovered above $3,650, while silver surged to new cycle highs above $42 on CPI-driven dollar weakness and ETF interest. Crude oil softened: Brent traded below $66 as IEA forecasts surplus and demand risks resurfaced. Meanwhile, Arabica coffee futures surged nearly 40% in 6 weeks, hitting their highest since May, driven by Brazilian drought and US tariffs. Industrial metals also gained, with aluminum and copper up, supported by stimulus hopes in China. Commodities overall saw broad gains, with the BCOM Index up 1.4% on the week.

Market pulse: Metals and softs rally, while energy falters amid demand doubts.

Currencies

USD choppy, AUD tops G10, NOK firm. The USD weakened midweek on soft CPI and jobless claims, though recovered slightly into Friday. EURUSD traded near 1.1730, while USDJPY hovered around 147.50, capped by a firmer JPY ahead of the BoJ meeting. The AUDUSD posted new 2025 highs, touching 0.6660 on 11 Sep, supported by strong commodity flows. The Norwegian krone led G10 FX, with EURNOK dropping below 11.56, as traders speculated on next week’s Norges Bank cut. FX markets are poised for volatility as the Fed and BoJ set policy direction this week.

Market pulse: FX traders brace for twin central bank moves—Fed and BoJ.

Key takeaways

• US equities hit record highs, led by AI, tech, and softer CPI.
• Volatility retreated, but short-term hedges spiked briefly around CPI.
• Bitcoin stable near $115k; ETF inflows and Solana flows supported sentiment.
• Treasury yields dipped, then rebounded into the Fed; ECB held steady.
• Gold and silver climbed, crude weakened; coffee surged on supply woes.
• USD mixed, AUD outperformed, NOK firm ahead of rate decisions.

Looking ahead (15 to 19 September 2025)

• Fed rate decision (Wed): Markets price 25bps cut; dot-plot and Powell remarks crucial.
• Meta Connect (Wed): Zuckerberg to unveil AI glasses and platform updates.
• US retail sales (Tue): Insight into consumer resilience.
• Earnings: General Mills (Wed), FedEx and Darden (Thu) could gauge consumer and logistic strength.
• Housing starts, jobless claims: Fresh reads on labour and housing markets.
• China data: Industrial output and policy tone remain in focus.
• BoJ and Norges Bank (Thu): FX markets brace for surprises.

Conclusion

Markets ended the week strong, with AI stocks, easing inflation, and rate-cut hopes propelling indices to record highs. Volatility calmed, but investors remain vigilant ahead of a pivotal Fed decision. In digital assets, ETF flows and institutional IPOs sustained momentum. Fixed income and FX markets await central bank clarity, while commodities saw divergent moves.

This week could set the tone for Q4 — with policy, tech, and macro all converging.