Outrageous Predictions
Révolution Verte en Suisse : un projet de CHF 30 milliards d’ici 2050
Katrin Wagner
Head of Investment Content Switzerland
Investment Strategist
Nvidia delivered another very strong quarter, led by demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Guidance beat expectations, but China and high expectations kept the initial stock reaction restrained.
The bigger investor question is now duration: how long can this spending cycle stay this strong?
Nvidia did not just report earnings on 20 May 2026. It handed investors another progress report on the artificial intelligence buildout.
The numbers were strong. Nvidia reported first-quarter revenue of 81.6 billion USD, up 85% from a year earlier. Data centre revenue, the core of the artificial intelligence story, reached 75.2 billion USD, up 92%. The company guided for second-quarter revenue of ahead of expectations, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The initial after-market reaction was mildly negative, suggesting investors liked the strength but were already looking beyond the headline beat. That may sound harsh. It is also what happens when a company becomes the unofficial scoreboard for one of the largest investment themes in markets. The earnings question is no longer whether demand is real. It is whether demand can stay this strong for long enough to justify the expectations already in the share price.
The main result was clear: demand remains powerful.
Revenue grew 20% from the previous quarter and 85% from a year earlier. Adjusted gross margin was 75%, which means Nvidia still keeps a very large share of each sales dollar after direct production costs. That matters because it suggests customers are still paying up for performance, supply and access to Nvidia’s platform.
Nvidia also announced an additional 80 billion USD share repurchase authorisation and raised its quarterly dividend from 0.01 USD to 0.25 USD per share. That will not be the main story for growth investors, but it does show how much cash the artificial intelligence boom is creating.
The market’s restrained initial reaction is therefore less about weak results and more about the bar. Nvidia has become so important that good is not enough. Investors want proof that the cycle extends into 2027 and beyond, that margins can stay high, and that customers are not simply ordering ahead before the next chip transition.
Data centres are the large facilities that store, process and move digital information. Artificial intelligence has turned them into industrial assets. They need chips, memory, networking, cooling, power and land. The cloud may sound weightless, but it increasingly looks like a very expensive electricity-hungry factory.
Nvidia’s data centre compute revenue reached 60.4 billion USD, up 77% from a year earlier. Networking revenue was 14.8 billion USD, up an eyepopping 199%. That second number matters because artificial intelligence systems do not rely only on one powerful chip. They rely on many chips working together quickly. Networking is the plumbing. Without it, the palace has no running water.
This is why Nvidia’s results matter beyond Nvidia. A strong data centre update supports the broader artificial intelligence supply chain: chip manufacturers, memory companies, networking specialists, data centre operators, power equipment makers and cloud platforms. It also helps explain why the theme has moved from software excitement to infrastructure reality.
For long-term investors, that shift is important. The artificial intelligence story is no longer just about chatbots and clever demos. It is about capital expenditure, supply chains and returns on invested capital. In plain English: companies are spending vast sums, and investors now need to ask who earns attractive profits from that spending.
Nvidia said its second-quarter outlook does not assume any data centre compute revenue from China. That is a key sentence. It means the guidance beat expectations even without including a contribution from one of the world’s largest technology markets.
That makes the result more impressive, but it also shows where uncertainty remains. Export controls, product restrictions and geopolitical decisions can change Nvidia’s addressable market. Addressable market simply means the revenue opportunity a company can realistically target. For a business this large, even small changes in market access can become very large numbers.
Competition is another factor. Advanced Micro Devices, Broadcom, custom chips from cloud companies and new internal designs all matter. They may not remove Nvidia’s leadership quickly, but they can reduce pricing power over time. The question is not whether Nvidia faces competition. The question is whether its full system, from chips to software and networking, remains hard enough to replace.
The first risk is expectations. Nvidia can report excellent numbers and still see pressure if investors expected something close to perfect. That is not unfair. It is just what happens when a stock carries a very large share of market confidence.
The second risk is customer spending. The largest cloud companies are investing heavily in artificial intelligence infrastructure. If those companies slow spending, delay orders or struggle to turn artificial intelligence services into revenue, the whole supply chain could feel it.
The third risk is geopolitics. Watch China commentary, export licences and any change in the company’s assumption around China data centre revenue. In this story, policy can move faster than a product roadmap.
Nvidia’s quarter shows that the artificial intelligence buildout remains very real, very large and very profitable for the companies sitting closest to the infrastructure layer. But the market’s first reaction also shows that investors have become harder to impress. That is healthy.
Great companies still need to clear great expectations, and Nvidia’s report is no longer just about one quarter of revenue. It is about the length, profitability and resilience of an entire investment cycle. The lesson for investors is not to guess tomorrow’s share price. It is to understand the machinery behind the story, because the machinery is now the story.
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