A tactical trade on Nasdaq 100 and Russel 2000 futures A tactical trade on Nasdaq 100 and Russel 2000 futures A tactical trade on Nasdaq 100 and Russel 2000 futures

A tactical trade on Nasdaq 100 and Russel 2000 futures

Trade View
Strategic Trade / Buy
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Instrument: Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 futures
Market Price: 7,235 for Nasdaq 100; 1,690 for Russell 2000


We're going long 0.5x Nasdaq 100 at the 7,235 levels and also going long 0.5x Russell2000 at the 1,690 level. This closes off the naked short we had on the Nikkei from Friday, to now a spread play (long US equities vs. short Japanese equities).  

Bottom line thesis here comes back to a few assumptions:

* Tech and small/medium equities are not going to be weighed down as much by global trades wars, which seem set to continue to escalate (further news in the Asian morning on Wednesday of more Trump tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese goods – and we're still we are a a long way away from the November 6 US midterm elections).

* Tech is one of the few sectors that does not get weighed down by rising rates, because unlike other sectors there is very little debt in tech, so higher debt payments are negligible.

* Technically speaking the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq 100 are the strongest looking charts from a major global index perspective (much more constructive than the S&P and the Dow, let alone their European and Asian cousins).

* I is still expecting these automobile tariffs to be imposed, which should come down hard on the DAX and the Nikkei, like an anchor around a mouse (it's worth noting, quite a few discussions on this trade thesis has come back with the suggestion of the DAX being a better short, due to a potential euro squeeze which does not help its exports). 

* US earnings kick off from next week, should provide some uplift for US equities. 

* In a global risk-off and escalating trade tensions, US assets benefit from a relative outperformance vs. the rest of the world.


Entry: 7,235 for Nasdaq 100; 1,690 for Russell 2000
Stop: n/a
Target: Strategic
Time Horizon: Strategic


Nasday 100 futures 5-year chart.                                                                                      Source: Saxo Bank
Russell 2000 futures 5-year chart.                                                                                   Source: Saxo Bank
Management And Risk Description:

* Trump getting hit by an ice-cream truck… seriously… markets would rip on this news… 

* De-escalation of global trade wars and ‘Americans bullying’ 

* Dollar-yen rallying massively, pushing the Nikkei short higher



A compiled overview of Trade Views provided on Home.saxo can be found here (https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/trade-views/report).


Saxo Capital Markets Pte. Ltd. (“SCM SG”) may distribute information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, SCM SG accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact SCM SG at +65 6303 7800 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region


Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.