Outrageous Predictions
Carry trade unwind brings USD/JPY to 100 and Japan’s next asset bubble
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Summary: Today, a look at US market performance behaving very differently yesterday as some software names got a big boost on an otherwise negative day, in part on DataDog's earnings result. Also, an interesting geopolitical signal comes out of Greenland, while there is plenty to talk about in macro and FX even if FX volatility remains restrained, waiting for US jobs data and next week's critical Trump-Xi summit. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
The Goldman Sachs research report on "Tracking the Trillions" in AI spending - very thorough look at many of the issues in understanding the risks in the assumptions about chip lifespan and much more.
An X post that looks at how the massive cap-ex spend on AI will drive S&P 500 earnings projections through next year, even if balance sheets are less robust on the other side.
Craig Tindale's massive work on how we are looking at climate change risks in the wrong way, with risks of ugly feedback loops in key systems that could accelerate change in ways the generalist models aren't.