Asia Market Quick Take – 23 June, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: US-Iran talks progresses; UK PM Starmer resigns
• Equities: Alphabet slumps on senior AI exit; SpaceX sinks after bond sale announcement
• FX: USD extends gains on Fed hike pricing; yen steady, kiwi underperforms
• Commodities: Oil reversed early gains to settle below $75
• Fixed income: 10 year Treasury yield jumped above 4.5%

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• US-Iran peace talks in Switzerland progressed over the weekend, with VP JD Vance calling the first round “very, very good.” Iran agreed to readmit IAEA nuclear inspectors, and the US issued a 60-day license allowing Iranian oil sales.
• The Pentagon told lawmakers it may need $80 billion in emergency funding for the war, though the White House has yet to submit a formal request to Congress.
• Australia’s manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in June from 50.7, its third month of expansion, supported by modest job gains. Output and new orders still slipped slightly, delivery times lengthened, and input/output prices rose on higher fuel and transport costs, though inflation eased. Business sentiment strengthened on expansion plans and expectations of better future orders.
• Canada’s headline inflation rose to 3.2% in May 2026 from 2.8%, the fastest since December 2023 and above the 3% forecast, driven by surging gasoline and energy prices and higher food costs. BoC core measures stayed steady (trimmed 2%, median 2.1%). Inflation eased for shelter and health/personal care, while household operations prices fell. CPI rose 1% month-on-month.
• Euro Area consumer confidence rose to -17.7 in June from -19 in May, missing the -17.5 forecast. EU confidence also improved, to -17 from -18.2. Easing oil prices helped, but sentiment remains below long-term and pre-conflict levels amid ongoing economic and purchasing power concerns.
• Markets reacted to PM Keir Starmer’s resignation, which opens the way for Andy Burnham—fresh from a by-election win and backed by Wes Streeting—to seek the premiership. Investors are watching for clarity on Burnham’s fiscal plans, amid concern that higher spending and gilt issuance could further strain the UK’s fragile public finances and high debt.

Equities: 

• US — The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,472.79 on Monday, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.3% to 26,166.60 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.3% to 51,712.71. Alphabet tumbled 5% in its worst session in 13 months following the departure of a senior AI leader. Amazon fell 4.8% and SpaceX plunged 16% to its lowest since its IPO debut after announcing its first investment-grade bond sale. Financials outperformed, rising 0.5%. In after-hours trade, Primoris Services sank as much as 35% after slashing its full-year adjusted earnings guidance, citing weakness in its renewables business. Avis Budget jumped 6.6% after reaching a settlement agreement with Pentwater Capital Management.
• EU — European equities gained on Monday as US-Iran peace talk progress lifted sentiment. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.7%, the DAX advanced 0.6% to 25,139.69, the FTSE 100 gained 0.7% to 10,437.85, and the SMI rose 0.5%. Infineon led chip stocks higher, up 4.8%, while Soitec surged 9.2%. Hermès fell as much as 5.9% after analysts forecast a hit to first-half profitability. Defence stocks underperformed on peace talk optimism, with Babcock down 5.9% and Leonardo off 3.7%. Sanofi closed at a six-year low after AbbVie agreed to acquire Apogee Therapeutics.
• Asia — Asian equities broadly gained on Monday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising as much as 1.1% to a record high, led by AI and semiconductor names. The Nikkei 225 rose 1.5% to a record 72,353.96, driven by tech-sector strength and optimism around US-Iran talks. The Kospi closed up 0.7% at 9,114.55, with SK Hynix surging 5.6% to an all-time high. The Straits Times Index (STI) gained 0.2% to 5,204.01, supported by peace-talk sentiment, though Asiatic Group plunged over 25% after agreeing to dispose of a 49% stake in Colben Energy. Hong Kong's Hang Seng retreated as property shares weighed. At the open on Tuesday, the Kospi slipped 0.3% to 9,083.54, while Nikkei futures pointed modestly higher, up 0.2% on the SGX.

Earnings this week:

• Tuesday: Cerebras, Sanrio, Carnival, FedEx
• Wednesday: Micron Technology, Trip.com

FX:

• USD is broadly stronger as markets price in a higher chance of Fed rate hikes this year, with leveraged funds’ net long USD positions rising to $29.4 billion (the highest since February 2025) and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up about 0.2% on Monday.
• Most G10 currencies weakened modestly against the dollar: AUD, GBP, EUR and CHF slipped, while JPY and CNH were roughly flat.
• EURUSD is grinding lower toward its 2026 year-to-date low of 1.1411, trading near the lower Bollinger band, close to oversold on the 14‑day RSI, and well below its 21‑day moving average at 1.1572.
• USDJPY is edging toward 162, supported by a wide two‑year yield spread that keeps the dollar attractive as a carry trade, with markets largely discounting Japanese intervention warnings given the rate environment.
• NZDUSD trades around 0.5700, down 0.23% and the weakest G10 today as broad USD strength hits commodities FX. Despite a split RBNZ holding at 2.25% but signalling further hikes, markets have scaled back tightening bets.
• USDCNH was broadly steady as the PBoC moved to further yuan internationalization by allowing six major banks to conduct offshore CNY business directly from the mainland.

Commodities:

• WTI crude fell $1.41 to settle at $75.19 per barrel, with Brent closing just below $78, as the US-Iran peace talks and the 60-day Iranian oil sales waiver weighed on prices. Oil edged slightly higher in early Asian trading today as markets continued to assess the durability of the talks.
• Gold steadied near $4,190 per ounce after gaining nearly 1% in the prior session, snapping a three-day decline. Hedge funds boosted net bullish gold positions to a 20-week high, with net longs rising to 112,918 contracts as of June 16, according to CFTC data.
• LME 3-month copper rose $54 to close at $13,649 per tonne, supported by optimism that progress in US-Iran peace talks could ease inflation pressures and support industrial metals demand. Hedge funds trimmed net bullish Comex copper bets to a six-week low, however, suggesting some positioning caution.

Fixed income:

• US Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year yield up 5.2bps to 4.509%, the 30-year up 4.5bps to 4.945% — its largest single-day yield gain since 15 May — and the 1-year up 4.3bps to 4.033%. The 10-year real yield rose to 2.23%, heading for a 14-month closing high.
• Treasury bill auctions saw weak demand, with 6-month bills sold at 3.84% — the highest stopout rate since September — as markets priced in at least one Fed rate hike by year-end. Indirect bidders took only 53% of the 6-month offering. Barclays raised its Treasury yield targets by approximately 35bps across maturities following the Fed's hawkish pivot under Chair Kevin Warsh.
• European government bonds outperformed Treasuries. German 10-year Bund yields fell 3.6bps to 2.949% and Italian 10-year BTP yields fell 4.7bps to 3.649%, as the oil price decline and peace talk progress supported the European rates complex. A Japan 5-year JGB auction is in focus today.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.
The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.