Outrageous Predictions
Carry trade unwind brings USD/JPY to 100 and Japan’s next asset bubble
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Singapore Sales Trader
Carry trade strategies allow investors to enhance portfolio returns by borrowing in a low‑interest‑rate currency and deploying the funds into higher‑yielding assets. The return is generated from the interest rate differential between the funding currency and the investment asset.We are pleased to introduce Swiss Franc (CHF) financing at an attractive rate of 1%* (as of 18th March 2026) when you take a margin loan using our Margin Lending feature.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is widely viewed as a preferred funding currency and traditional safe‑haven, supported by Switzerland’s macroeconomic stability, low inflation, and consistently accommodative monetary policy. These qualities make CHF an attractive choice for carry‑trade strategies, particularly in today’s uncertain geopolitical environment.
1. A Stable Economy with Persistently Low Inflation
Switzerland has a long history of low inflation, driven by several structural characteristics:
This framework has consistently kept Swiss inflation significantly below that of major developed markets.
2. Low and Accommodative Interest Rates
Switzerland’s persistently low inflation has enabled the SNB to maintain one of the most accommodative monetary policy stances globally. The central bank has signalled that they plan to hold rates at 0% through 2026 while a return to negative interest rates—previously in place from 2014 to 2022—remains possible though the bar remains high.
This policy backdrop results in:
Margin lending/financing can help boost your buying power by up to 4x, and in turn help supercharge your dividend yield.
1. Pick a stock yielding a good dividend. In Singapore, there are many local companies that provide a dividend yield above 4%. Some names include DBS, SIA, Sembcorp Industries, Mapletree Industrial Trust and Lendlease Reit. You can also buy US stocks though they tend to focus more on share buybacks and reinvestment into their business than paying a good dividend.
2. Purchase the stock using a margin loan in your CHF sub-account. Once margin lending is enabled, the system will automatically utilize a loan whenever there is insufficient cash to settle the trade. The projected loan utilisation will be shown on the trade ticket before you submit the order, allowing you to review the margin impact in advance.
Let us look at an example below:
In this example, let us assume that you wish to boost your buying power by a conservative 2x to buy 10,000 CHF worth of DBS shares which has a dividend yield of 5.5%. By taking a loan in CHF to buy DBS shares, you can boost your dividend yield from 5.5% to 10.0%.
Cash = 5,000 CHF
Margin loan = 5,000 CHF
Dividends = 5.5% x 10,000 CHF = 550 CHF
Interest paid = 1%* x 5,000 CHF = 50 CHF
Net Dividend = 550 CHF – 50 CHF = 500 CHF
Yield = 500 CHF / 5000 CHF = 10.0%
There are other low interest currencies (like SGD or JPY) that can be attractive to take a loan in. We can compare how the yields would look below:
A margin loan in SGD can also be taken at the SGD rate of 2%**, where the interest component would be 2% x 5000 = 100. This means yield would be 9.0%.
A margin loan in JPY can be taken at the JPY rate of 1.75%**, where the interest component would be 1.75% x 5000 = 87.5. This means yield would be 9.25%.
1. Foreign Exchange (FX) Risk
FX risk arises when you take a CHF margin loan to invest in assets priced in another currency like US or Singapore equities and ETFs. In doing so, you are effectively short CHF—your returns benefit if the franc depreciates against the investment currency, but face downside if the franc appreciates.
One way to mitigate this currency risk is to hedge your CHF exposure using our FX trade ticket on the platform. E.g. If you took a margin loan of 10,000 CHF to purchase US stocks in USD, you could hedge the FX risk by going long 10,000 CHFUSD.
2. Interest Rate Risk
Interest‑rate expectations directly affect borrowing costs, making policy outlooks important for managing leverage. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to keep its policy rate at 0% through 2026, with inflation projected to remain within its stability range at 0.3% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027, reducing the likelihood of tightening.
The SNB has also indicated a preference for FX intervention over rate changes when addressing franc strength. The CHF’s resilience continues to limit imported inflation, keeping the pass‑through from global energy shocks modest and helping maintain accommodative conditions.
3. Market Risk
Margin Lending allows you to increase your market exposure by boosting your purchasing power and taking larger positions than your own capital alone would permit. While this can amplify potential returns, it also increases sensitivity to market movements.
If your investment value falls, you may need to top up funds or eligible collateral to maintain required margin levels. Failure to do so will trigger an automatic partial stop‑out, reducing margin loan utilisation from 100% to 90% to help protect your overall positions.
* Swiss offer rate used is 0% as of 18 March 2026. Saxo mark up above the offer rate is 1% (VIP rate).
**Singapore SORA offer rate used is 1% and Japan cash rate used is 0.75% as of 18 March 2026. Saxo mark up above the offer rate is 1% (VIP rate)