Singapore Sales Trader
Summary: Pay close attention to the Fed voter dynamics as this could have nearly as big an impact on the markets as the US-China trade tussle and US twin deficits.
After a long period in which increased flattening of the US yield curve drove predictions for a recession in 2019 when inversion becomes reality, the presumed inevitability of this flattening is now attracting more scrutiny. One can argue that the relative insulation from trade war ill-effects of US growth outperformance, rising wages and US corporate earnings is driving the markets to a pivotal point…or is it?
It is almost universally accepted that future Treasury issuances will expand in size (indeed, $230bn worth are up for auction this week) to fund the ballooning US budgets on the back of the Trump administration’s tax cuts. Until recently, the yield curve continued to flatten as the Fed’s rate hikes were read as the inevitable action of a central bank trying to inch closer to neutral territory while retaining a little ammunition for a sustainable rise in long end yields in the wake of still-tepid wage growth and a likely escalation of budget and trade deficits. But are we at a point where we must reprice the possibility of some sort of equilibrium being re-established in the tenure premium in the Treasury markets?
US 10yr-2yr spread
A new fragmented world order can render some of today's infrastructure obselete, but it also calls for massive new investments across the globe, which requires a new set of strategic and tactical investment strategies.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
