Saxo Weekly Market Compass – 7 April 2026

A four-day week defined by a single variable: will Trump end the war with Iran?

The trading week of 30 March to 2 April 2026 played out almost entirely around one question: the trajectory of the US military campaign against Iran and its consequences for the Strait of Hormuz. Equity markets swung sharply on every headline – the S&P 500 slipped Monday as a fresh Iranian tanker strike in Dubai reinforced the oil shock, surged 2.9% Tuesday on ceasefire signals from Washington, and added 0.7% Thursday when Trump’s address stopped short of a clear exit timeline. The week closed with the S&P 500 at 6,575, WTI crude above USD 105 per barrel, gold pulling back from its mid-week high near USD 4,759 to USD 4,664, and the VIX declining from 30 to 24 – elevated, but no longer accelerating. Options flow was broadly defensive throughout, with only selective pockets of constructive positioning in metals mid-week and isolated upside expressions in mega-cap tech.

Equities

A volatile week ends net higher, driven by ceasefire headlines, but underlying defensiveness persists.

• USA: The S&P 500 opened the week under pressure, dipping 0.4% on Monday 30 March as the Iran oil shock weighed on sentiment. Tuesday produced the standout session: the index surged 2.9% to 6,528.52 – its best single-day gain in months – after President Trump signalled a potential deal with Tehran within two to three weeks. The Nasdaq added 3.8% to 21,590.63 in the same session. Thursday’s final trading day before Easter added a further 0.7%, with the S&P 500 closing the short week at 6,575.32 and the Nasdaq at 21,840.95.
• Europe: European equities tracked the risk recovery. The STOXX 600 climbed 2.5% to 597.69 on Thursday, the DAX gained 2.7% to 23,298.89, and the FTSE 100 rose 1.9%. Energy-exposed European names led gains early in the week, while broader participation followed on the Tuesday and Thursday recovery sessions.
• Asia: Asian markets delivered the week’s largest single-session moves. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 5.0% to 53,621.08 on Tuesday, supported by a weaker yen and positive offshore risk sentiment, before adding another 4.5% on Thursday to 53,355.70. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng recovered 2.1% on Tuesday. Japan’s Q1 Tankan large manufacturers index rose to 17 from 16, beating forecasts and confirming resilient corporate confidence despite the global geopolitical backdrop.

Market pulse: Equities closed the week net positive, but the gains were ceasefire-dependent; without conflict resolution, the fragility of the rally remains evident in options positioning and the absence of broad participation in upside flow.

Looking ahead – equities

Q1 earnings season begins in earnest next week, with JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and BlackRock all reporting from Monday 14 April. Guidance from energy and consumer-facing companies will be scrutinised for early signals of margin compression from elevated oil prices. The geopolitical backdrop remains the dominant overlay: a resolution on the Iran situation would likely trigger a sharp short-covering rally, while renewed escalation could erase the week’s gains rapidly.

Volatility

VIX fell sharply from its spike high, but the market is not yet calm.

• VIX trajectory: The VIX closed at 30.61 at Monday’s end, then fell 17.5% on Tuesday to 25.25 as ceasefire headlines compressed the fear premium. By Wednesday 1 April it had eased further to 24.54. A VIX above 20 signals the market is still pricing genuine uncertainty rather than normalcy, and any headline reversal can rapidly rebuild the premium.
• Options-implied moves: Near-term SPX options continued to price for meaningful realised moves throughout the week. Into the 2 April expiry, the market implied roughly a 70.6-point intraday move (approximately 1.07%) and a broader 180.4-point range from the session open (2.83%). These were not overestimates – Tuesday’s 3% session confirmed the options market was correctly pricing elevated realised volatility.
• Skew shift: By Thursday, near-the-money skew around the 6,575–6,580 area had shifted mildly toward upside, with calls priced at slightly higher implied volatility than puts near the market. This is a first tentative signal that the persistent downside-skew regime may be easing – though it is too early to call a structural change.

Market pulse: Volatility is cooling but not resolved; a VIX re-expansion toward 28–30 remains the primary tail risk if Iran headlines reverse direction.

Looking ahead – volatility

At the time of publication on Tuesday 7 April, the VIX is already trading up 11% to 26.92 as President Trump’s Iran deadline expires today. The Iran outcome tonight is now the primary volatility event – ahead of CPI on Thursday. If escalation materialises, expect VIX to re-test or exceed 30. A ceasefire tonight could compress VIX rapidly toward 20. Thursday’s CPI then becomes the vol event for the second half of the week: a hot print keeps VIX elevated; a soft reading extends the compression.

Options sentiment

Broadly defensive across all four sessions, with selective constructive signals emerging in metals mid-week.

Options flow across all major categories signalled broad defensiveness throughout the four-day week. In broad equities, put-heavy flow in index products dominated all four sessions, with positioning concentrated in downside protection rather than directional bets – even on Tuesday’s sharp equity recovery. Mega-cap technology names were consistently defensive, with protective structures in Microsoft across every session; the only notable exception was isolated call-spread activity in NVIDIA. Crypto-related flow was net defensive for three of the four sessions, with put-heavy positioning in bitcoin-linked equities and ETFs reflecting caution about the macro-driven price action.

Energy options evolved from defensive and hedging early in the week toward selective income strategies and tactical upside expressions as WTI held elevated levels. Metals showed the most constructive flow of the week: notable call-spread activity in gold mid-week positioned for continued upside, consistent with the metal’s four-session advance. That bullish bid eased by Thursday as gold retreated from its peak near USD 4,759, with flow reverting to a more two-sided, directionally neutral tone in the final session.

Digital assets

Crypto stabilised alongside equities but remains macro-dependent, not yet a leading risk signal.

• Bitcoin: Bitcoin began the week near USD 67,400 and tracked the equity rebound to approximately USD 68,800 mid-week before softening to around USD 66,600 by Thursday’s close. The asset moved broadly in line with broader risk sentiment rather than offering an independent directional signal. For investors, the consistent message was that crypto is stabilising and not breaking down, but it lacks the institutional tailwinds needed for a sustained move higher.
• Ethereum & altcoins: Ethereum traded near USD 2,142 on Wednesday before pulling back toward USD 2,050 by Thursday. Crypto-linked equities such as Coinbase outperformed on the equity recovery sessions, tracking the broader risk rebound more closely than spot crypto prices. Altcoin activity remained macro-driven, with no independent price leadership from Solana or XRP during the week.
• ETF flows: ETF flows were modest throughout the week. IBIT saw approximately USD 7.5 million in inflows on Monday; by Thursday the ETF was trading near USD 38.64 with ETHA at approximately USD 16.16. Total daily flows remained insufficient to act as a strong directional tailwind for spot prices, confirming that institutional accumulation – while present – has not yet reached the pace needed for a durable uplift.

Market pulse: Crypto is holding up but not leading; its next directional move will likely be determined by this week’s CPI outcome and any ceasefire developments.

Looking ahead – digital assets

US March CPI on Thursday 10 April is a binary catalyst for digital assets. A hot inflation print reinforcing stagflationary concerns could pressure Bitcoin toward the USD 64,000–65,000 range. A softer reading, particularly if accompanied by ceasefire progress, could unlock the next leg higher and reignite ETF inflow momentum.

Fixed income

Bonds tried to rally on de-escalation signals but ultimately resumed their role as an inflation vehicle rather than a safe haven.

• US Treasuries: The US 10-year yield entered the week having hit an eight-month high of 4.48% the preceding Friday. A three-day rally through Monday to Wednesday reflected both briefly lower oil prices and the first ceasefire signals, pulling the benchmark yield back toward 4.32%. That recovery reversed sharply on Thursday as WTI rebounded above USD 105 and US data surprised to the upside: ISM manufacturing rose to 52.7 (the strongest reading since August 2022), retail sales came in above consensus at 0.6%, and ADP private payrolls added 62,000. The combination reignited inflation concerns and sent yields back toward their weekly high.
• Structural shift: The week’s key message from fixed income was structural: oil is now acting as the dominant transmission channel for yields. When crude stays elevated, the inflation concern outweighs any growth-shock safe-haven demand. Fed Chair Powell reinforced this dynamic by noting that policy is “in a good place to wait and see” – signalling the Fed is unlikely to provide a floor for bonds while energy prices remain elevated. Bonds are no longer reliably buffering equity drawdowns in this regime.
• Japan: Japanese government bond yields declined during the week following the Tankan survey beat, reflecting continued Bank of Japan caution about the pace of normalisation in a globally uncertain environment. The 10-year JGB remains a key watch for any shift in BOJ policy signalling.

Market pulse: Fixed income is caught between growth-shock fears and oil-driven inflation; resolution of the Iran conflict is the cleanest path to yield compression and a more conventional bond-equity relationship.

Looking ahead – fixed income

Thursday’s US March CPI is the pivot event for bonds this week. With WTI averaging around USD 100–105 for much of March, a hot headline print (consensus ~3.4–3.5% year-on-year) would likely push the 10-year yield toward 4.6% and above. A surprise undershoot could trigger meaningful yield compression and provide the bond market with a genuine relief trade heading into Q1 earnings season.

Commodities

Oil remained the dominant commodity story; gold’s mid-week rally faded on a stronger dollar and rising yields.

• Oil: Crude oil whipsawed through the four-day week as every Trump headline on Iran moved prices 3–6%. The early-week tone was mixed as the market weighed Washington signals against the ongoing supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent and WTI edged lower Tuesday and Wednesday as ceasefire hopes briefly reduced the geopolitical premium. Thursday’s presidential address – which acknowledged objectives were close to being met but offered no clear exit timeline – triggered a sharp reversal: Brent surged 6.3% to USD 107.49 and WTI rose 5.3% to USD 105.40. The IEA warned that April supply disruptions will hit Europe harder than March, with diesel and jet fuel stress becoming increasingly visible.
• Gold: Gold extended its recovery for three-to-four consecutive sessions early in the week, briefly approaching USD 4,759 – the 50% retracement level of the March correction. That level acted as resistance: on Thursday gold reversed approximately 2% to USD 4,664 as the stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields outweighed the geopolitical-haven bid. Gold is not a clean safe-haven play at current levels – it responds to real yields and the dollar as much as to conflict risk.
• Metals & agriculture: Copper climbed to a two-week high after finding support at the 200-day moving average near USD 5.25 per pound, supported by China’s first manufacturing PMI expansion of 2026 (50.4 in March). Agricultural markets saw upside pressure following the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, which showed weaker-than-expected US acreage intentions; soybeans led gains as supply concerns intensified.

Market pulse: Oil is the primary inflation transmission mechanism; its trajectory is almost entirely a function of the Iran war outcome. Gold and copper will take their directional cues from what happens to the dollar and yields after Thursday’s CPI release.

Looking ahead – commodities

The IEA supply warning for April suggests that oil’s elevated levels are not purely a geopolitical premium – the physical tightness in European diesel and jet fuel markets is real. Gold faces a key test: a soft CPI print and a softer dollar could push it back toward USD 4,759 resistance, while a hot print would likely extend Thursday’s decline toward the USD 4,500–4,550 range. Agricultural markets remain sensitive to any further USDA updates on US and Southern Hemisphere planting conditions.

Currencies

The dollar closed March near four-month highs but showed brief vulnerability to peace-deal speculation mid-week.

• US dollar: The Bloomberg Dollar Index ended March with a gain of approximately 3% – the strongest monthly performance in over a year – reflecting safe-haven demand and oil-driven yield support for the greenback. During the four-day trading week, the dollar showed sensitivity to ceasefire signals: it softened on Tuesday as Trump raised peace-deal prospects, before firming again on Thursday as oil reversed and strong US data reasserted upward pressure on yields.
• USDJPY & yen: USDJPY remained the most watched cross of the week, hovering in the 158–160 range with Bank of Japan intervention risk escalating. The yen declined approximately 2.9% against the dollar over the full month of March, reflecting the asymmetric impact of high energy prices on Japan’s import-heavy economy. Intervention risk is live above 160.
• EUR, GBP & NOK: The euro and pound each declined roughly 2.9% against the dollar over March. The Norwegian krone was the standout performer among G10 majors, posting its strongest monthly close against the euro since July 2023, directly supported by surging energy prices boosting Norway’s terms of trade. USDCAD edged lower on Tuesday on modest Canadian GDP growth before reversing on Thursday’s oil rebound.

Market pulse: The dollar’s direction remains oil-and-yield-driven; peace-deal progress is the primary catalyst for a potential sustained softening in the DXY from current elevated levels.

Looking ahead – currencies

Thursday’s US CPI is the dominant FX catalyst of the week. A hot print would likely push USDJPY through 160 and intensify Bank of Japan intervention pressure; a softer reading could provide yen relief and broader dollar softening across G10. EURUSD remains rangebound, defined by the war outcome and the US–eurozone relative growth differential – a ceasefire announcement would likely be a bigger mover than any single data print.

Key takeaways

• The S&P 500 closed the four-day week at 6,575.32 on Thursday 2 April, driven by a 2.9% Tuesday surge following Trump ceasefire signals; the Nasdaq closed at 21,840.95, adding 1.2% on the final session.
• VIX declined from 30.61 to 24.54 over the four sessions, reflecting tentative de-escalation optimism, but remains elevated and will re-expand rapidly on any Iran headline reversal.
• Options flow was broadly defensive across equities, crypto, and early-week energy; selective constructive expressions emerged in metals mid-week, with isolated call-spread activity in NVIDIA the only notable upside exception within mega-cap tech.
• US 10-year Treasury yields oscillated between 4.32% and 4.48%, unable to sustain a rally as strong US data (ISM manufacturing 52.7, retail sales +0.6%) and Thursday’s oil reversal kept the inflation premium elevated.
• WTI crude closed at USD 105.40 and Brent at USD 107.49 on Thursday after a sharp reversal, with the IEA warning of worsening April supply disruptions in European diesel and jet fuel markets.
• Gold reached a mid-week high near USD 4,759 – the 50% retracement of the March decline – before reversing approximately 2% to USD 4,664 as a firmer dollar and rising yields capped the safe-haven bid.
• Bitcoin ended the week near USD 66,600, broadly tracking equity risk sentiment; ETF inflows remained modest and insufficient to act as a sustained directional tailwind for spot prices.
• The week confirmed a structurally unusual regime: equities rose on ceasefire hopes while yields rose on oil and strong US data – positive and negative cross-asset signals firing simultaneously, making traditional correlation-based hedging less reliable.

Looking ahead – week of 7–11 April 2026

The most consequential event of the week is not on any calendar. President Trump’s self-imposed deadline to Iran expires today, Tuesday 7 April. With Trump having threatened to “wipe out an entire civilization” if demands are not met, and the VIX already trading up 11% to 26.92 at the time of publication, the potential for an overnight or pre-market shock is live. Escalation tonight or tomorrow morning could send oil sharply higher and equities sharply lower; a surprise ceasefire agreement would have the opposite effect across virtually every asset class simultaneously. This single event makes the risk environment for the rest of the week impossible to forecast with any confidence.

Against that backdrop, Thursday 10 April’s US March CPI is the standout scheduled economic release. With WTI elevated throughout March, the headline figure is expected to show upward pressure; consensus sits around 3.4–3.5% year-on-year. A print above 3.7% would materially reset rate-cut expectations for 2026, likely pushing the 10-year yield through 4.6%. A softer reading would provide meaningful cross-asset relief. Note that major US bank earnings – JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock – begin the following week on Monday 14 April, not this Friday.

For most participants, the sequencing is straightforward: the Iran headline tonight comes first and could reset the entire context for CPI. A defined-risk posture ahead of both events is the only framework that survives either outcome.

Calendar highlights (times in GMT)

Tue 7 Apr – Trump-Iran deadline (today); European markets reopen after Easter Monday
Wed 8 Apr – US February wholesale inventories; Fed speakers
Thu 10 Apr – US March CPI (consensus ~3.4–3.5% YoY); US weekly initial jobless claims
Fri 11 Apr – US March PPI; University of Michigan April Consumer Sentiment
Mon 14 Apr – JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock Q1 earnings (Q1 earnings season opens)

Concluding remarks

The week of 30 March to 2 April 2026 confirmed that the Iran conflict has fundamentally reshaped the cross-asset correlation regime. Equities and bonds moved against conventional safe-haven logic on multiple occasions; oil drove yields higher even as equities rallied on peace signals; and gold ultimately succumbed to dollar and yield pressure despite its geopolitical-haven reputation. The options flow data – broadly defensive throughout, even as equity indices pushed higher – suggests that professional participants are treating this rally as something to hedge rather than chase. As of publication on Tuesday 7 April, the Iran deadline expires today – making this Compass live into one of the highest binary-risk moments of the year. Defined-risk structures are not a conservative choice right now; they are the only rational one.

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