Head of FX Strategy
Summary: The Saxo Strategy Team recorded a long-form podcast aimed at highlighting what is at stake for markets and the economy both as this crisis runs its course, and in its aftermath. The team highlights that this crisis will bring an enormous paradigm shift that requires investors to position for a whole new market and economic environment. Here, we pull out some of the themes from this podcast.
Yesterday we recorded a special edition of the Saxo Market Call podcast, in which we tried to get in the helicopter and take a look at the lay of the land not just here in the teeth of this crisis, but where things are likely to head as we get to the other side of it as well. We mulled everything from the danger of an inflationary and even stagflationary outcome for the economy to the outlook for equities, bonds, commodities and foreign exchange. It’s a must listen for those considering the longer term perspective here and how to position for the post Covid19 market environment.
The Saxo Market Call Special Edition podcast – March 25, 2020
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Below are a few takeaways from the our forty-five minute conversation.
On Macro – Steen Jakobsen
On Equities – Peter Garnry
On Commodities – Ole Hansen
On Currencies – John Hardy
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
