Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 24...

Macro 2 minutes to read

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.


(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 24... 

 

Top of Mind…

  • Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 24…
  • What kind of week are you trying to have?
  • What is your legacy going to be this wk? You gonna hit the world outside for some "thriving" walks, hills, forests, swims or runs, or are you going to be "surviving" through Netflix, watching other people’s stories?
  • Are you gonna do the heavy lifting for your own due diligence & research (post inspiration from the Dragon & SaxoStrats squad), or just keep “busy” with reading line after line of news & “research”? Are you going to make time to think for yourself or let things be dictated to what you should do?
  • Are you gonna go through the charts & the technicals, to enhance your trade set-ups or just wing it, keep you stops & targets in you “head”?
  • Either way, you are going to get a better or worse this wk in your craft & life…
  • …it is going to be an interesting wk, and like any other wk full of limitless upside & downside opportunities… stick to the process & systems in place, there is no belief, like self-belief…
  • As we flagged last wk & had previously highlighted in our May Macro Dragon’s monthly high probability exercise, for one to expect more fiscal stimulus & monetary stimulus in the quarters to years ahead… i.e. we are not done, with central bank & government debt balance sheet expansions…  
  • and that’s exactly what we got in Europe last week with the ECB & the fiscal leap up in Germany (38% of GDP) – imagine where Germany is 6-12-18m from now, vs the rest of its European peers…
  • Themes & Economic data: This week a lot more light that the previous two… its likely going to focus around FOMC, with perhaps expectations raised given ECB last wk. There is a bit of an inflation theme across the board with the US & CH figures there due, OPEC could be interesting (albeit the shenanigans there are unchanged).
  • The same themes will continue, dislocation between underlying economy, coupled with liquidity from MP & FP & asset prices flying to the moon. US / CH relations, will we escalate, cool off or be on ice this week? And of course, will the social instability in the US (Yes, yes… which we also flagged many times) continue to play out… whilst its unlikely to have a big effect on risk-assets unless it explodes further in places like NY, SF… its going to become a central issue into the elections… & one that Trump is not geared to play well… so watch out for that trade deal breakout scenario that we have been on about… only upside for Trump & he would get the narrative back on his side.
  • And of course, continued USD weakness, the potential tailwinds for EM assets here & risk assets in general. And the fact that currently, it seems that only a phase one deal breakdown can significantly turn the USD around.
  • The Dragon is still in the Technicals over Fundamentals camp… as the latter does not matter until it does & that could take 6wks, 6m or even 1-3yrs…
  • Central Banks: FED.
  • Holidays: AU out on Mon holiday
  • US: JOLTS, Inflation, FOMC, PPI, Jobless Claims, UoM sentiment
  • CH: Inflation, PPI, Money supply, New Loans, Trade Balance
  • EZ: German IP, EZ IP, GDP
  • JP: Bank Lending, Current Account, GDP, Avg. Cash Erns, PPI
  • UK: GDP, Construction Output, Trade Balance, IP
  • AU: Nab Biz. Conf., Westpac Cons. Sentiment, MI Inflation Expectations
  • NZ: ANZ Biz Confidence, Mfg. Sales, Biz Mfg. Index, FPI
  • CA: Housing Starts, Corporate Profits Q/Q, Capacity Utilization Rate
  • Other: Looks like we should have OPEC meetings on Tue

 

Some Recent Stand-Outs From the Sensational #SaxoStrats Squad

-

Start-End = Gratitude+Integrity+Vision. Create Luck. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.


Namaste,

KVP

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.