Market Quick Take - June 24, 2020 Market Quick Take - June 24, 2020 Market Quick Take - June 24, 2020

Market Quick Take - June 24, 2020

Macro 3 minutes to read
Steen Jakobsen

Chief Investment Officer

Summary:  Equity markets are crawling back higher today after a bit of profit taking into the US market close late yesterday after the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 posted strong new all-time highs. The NZD was sharply weaker overnight on the RBNZ adding foreign assets to its list of possible purchases. Meanwhile, gold closed at its highest level in almost eight years.

What is our trading focus?

  • US500.I (S&P 500 Index) and USNAS100.I (NASDAQ 100 Index) – the US equity market saw another strong session yesterday, but one still marked by notable divergences and with more than a little profit taking into the close. The Nasdaq 100 pulled to a new all-time high, while the S&P 500 has yet to break above local resistance in the tight trading area of late capped around 3,155.

  • XAUUSD (Spot Gold) - reached a fresh 8-year high as surging virus cases across the U.S. throws the reopening into disarray and after Mnuchin said the administration is discussing another stimulus package. Broad dollar weakness and lower real yields supported the break which occurred without triggering a cascade of fresh buying. A sign that very few short positions exit with many investors being long already, and that further – but expected - support from other markets will be needed to carry it higher towards the next key level at $1800/oz. The latest COT report showed hedge funds turning net buyers for the first time in four weeks. Having cut net longs by 50% since February the breakout is likely to force some buyers back into the market. Note: The break occurred without the sort from silver which remains perched below $18/oz.

  • OILUSAUG20 (WTI) and OILUKAUG20 (Brent) - both trading softer after hitting levels last seen in early March. The combination of a new virus threat potentially slowing the recovery in fuel demand and the API reporting a 1.75 million barrel climb in crude stocks last week the main reasons. Focus today on the weekly inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) at 14:30 GMT with surveys looking for a mixed result with rising oil stocks and falling product stocks. Overall, the market remains in crude health on a combination of dramatic production cuts and a rapid rebound in demand as regions across the world ease lockdown restrictions. But the virus threat remains acute hence the potential limited upside until the impact of and the reaction to the latest spikes becomes clearer.

  • WDI:xetr (Wirecard) - shares rebounded 19% yesterday but investors should stay cautious and not getting too optimistic on Wirecard. The company is facing an existential risk if card companies such as Mastercard or VISA revoke their licenses due to the ongoing scandal with €1.9bn in cash missing. Without those Wirecard cannot do business, but even with the license several large clients have spoken publicly about finding a substitute for its payments infrastructure which jeopardizing the whole rebounding case for Wirecard.

  • DELL:xnys (Dell Technologies) - the company has kicked off a process to start divesting its $50bn share in VMware which aims to unlock the value of Dell’s core PC and data-storage business. With Dell’s market value of $36bn the market is not putting any value on its core business. The divestment could become a longer term catalyst for the share price.

  • USDZAR – with the emergency South African budget announcement up today, we look for the ZAR to prove reactive after a period of passively following the improvement in EM credit spreads over the last two months. The debt dynamics for South Africa are unsustainable in the longer term and will require difficult austerity and reforms to avoid defaults or a potential IMF bailout, as Finance Minister Mboweni has warned.

  • USDJPY – the US dollar wilted broadly yesterday and USDJPY saw a sudden jolt lower that took out support levels below 106.58 and triggered stops before rebounding slightly – an odd move considering muted trading in safe haven fixed income and strong risk appetite across equities yesterday. The 106.00 area is even more prominent on the chart if the selling resumes and could open up considerable further downside, while a move and close back above 107.00 suggests yesterday’s move was a misleading development (possibly on SoftBank’s readying a massive, approximate  $20B sale of T-Mobile shares).

  • AUDNZD – watching this NZD cross for relative weakness in NZD after the RBNZ maintained its dovish reputation overnight and the pair leaped higher on the new statement that added foreign asset purchases to its list of “deployable tools”, indicating a readiness to do direct currency intervention to help support the economy.

What is going on?

  • The RBNZ continues to look at expanding its tool kit to support the economy in a dovish meeting and in its new statement, added foreign asset purchases to the list of “deployable tools” that it was looking into readying for possible use because it doesn’t see the economy recovering to pre-crisis levels until late 2021.

  • Hungary’s central bank surprised with a 15 bps rate cut to take the rate to 0.75%, taking the HUF lower across the board as the central bank had generally maintained a more restrictive posture during the early phase of the coronavirus crisis as HUF was under significant pressure at the time, but much of which had eased over the last two months.

  • Global Flash June PMI’s show mixed recovery: Australia had a strong Services PMI above 53 yesterday, while Japan’s Manufacturing PMI was still very weak below 40. Europe’s PMI’s were better than expected, but both were still below 50 (46.9 for Manufacturing and 47.3 for Services), while the US Services PMI number actually underperformed expectations at 46.7, with the Manufacturing survey reading at 49.6.  

What we are watching next?

  • South Africa supplementary budget announcement - To be announced today, with Finance Minister Mboweni leaning against support for SOE’s and pointing to the risk that South Africa eventually needs to ask the IMF for help in coming years if its deficit trajectory is not improved.

Economic Calendar Highlights (times GMT)

  • 0800 – Germany Jun. IFO Business Sentiment Survey
  • 1100 – Czech Central Bank Announcement
  • 1430 – US Weekly DoE Crude Oil and Product Inventories
  • 1630 – US Fed’s Evans (Non-voter) to Speak
  • 1900 – US Fed’s Bullard (Non-voter) to Speak

Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Saxo Markets Call on your favorite podcast app:

Apple Sportify Soundcloud Stitcher

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Trading in financial instruments carries risk, and may not be suitable for you. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region


Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.