Market Quick Take – 4 August 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US jobs miss; Trump tariffs; Amazon -8%; Swiss stocks bracing
• Volatility: VIX at 20.38; SPX expected move ±58pts; short-term vols elevated
• Digital assets: BTC stable; ETH rebounds; IBIT/ETHA slip; CPI next driver
• Fixed Income: US treasury yields cratered on Friday on the negative US jobs report
• Currencies: The US dollar suffered a meltdown on US jobs report Friday, particularly against the JPY
• Commodities: Gold bounces on goldilocks scenario. OPEC+ production hike weighing on crude
• Macro events: Switzerland CPI, US Jun. Factory Orders

Macro headlines

• Weak U.S. jobs data triggered the biggest correction since May on Wall Street, after the nonfarm payroll numbers showed just 73,000 jobs added in July, sharply missing forecasts and raising recession fears. The major revisions to previous months (the May and June payrolls growth data was revised down a combined -258k) pushed investors to raise odds of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, the chance of which has now been raised to over 80%.
• US President Trump fired the head of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the federal agency responsible for, among other things, the gathering and reporting of US labor market data. Trump claims that the BLS manipulated payrolls growth data ahead of the US election to make it appear that the US economy was stronger than it actually was to improve chances for the Democrats.
• Fed governor Adrian Kugler announced her early resignation from the Fed board of governors, effective Friday August 8. She was nominated by President Biden and Trump has said he will appoint a (no doubt very dovish) new Fed governor to replace her this week.
• A Wall Street Journal exclusive article (paywall) claims that China is choking off the supply of critical minerals to Western defense manufacturers by delaying production and forcing companies to find supplies elsewhere. Recently the US department of defense announced a public-private partnership with US-based MP Materials that would guarantee a price floor on certain rare earth minerals and related magnets for years to come.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0630 – Switzerland July CPI
1400 – US June Factory Orders
1400 – US June (final) Durable Goods Orders

Earnings events

Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.

• Today: Palantir, Berkshire Hathaway, MercadoLibre, Vertex Pharmaceuticals
• Tuesday: AMD, Caterpillar, Amgen, Eaton, Arista Networks, Pfizer, Transdigm, Supermicro
• Wednesday: Novo Nordisk, McDonalds, Disney, Uber, Shopify, AppLovin, DoorDash
• Thursday: Eli Lilly, Toyota, Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Allianz, Sony, Gilead, Conoco Philips, Softbank Group, Constellation Energy, Rheinmetall

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US: US stocks posted their steepest drop since April on Friday. The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, Nasdaq -2.2%, and Dow -1.2% as disappointing July payroll data (+73,000) and sweeping tariffs rattled sentiment. Amazon -8.3% dragged tech lower on weak cloud forecasts, while Apple -2.9% slipped despite solid results. Odds of a September Fed cut surged above 85%. Trump’s tariff hike — up to 41% on some imports — added to the risk-off tone. Futures rebounded modestly Sunday night after Trump announced leadership changes at the Fed and BLS, seeking tighter control over economic reporting.
• Europe: European markets slumped Friday, closing out their worst session since April. The STOXX 50 -2.7%, CAC 40 -2.9%, and DAX -2.7% were hit by fresh US tariffs and disappointing US jobs data. Pharma giants like Roche and Novartis fell after Trump demanded lower drug prices, while AXA -7.9% and Saint-Gobain -9.3% dropped on weak earnings. Swiss markets are expected to react sharply today to Trump's 39% tariff on Swiss goods. Although Europe negotiated a 15% tariff cap, the regional equity damage was widespread, with banks and industrials down sharply.
• UK: The FTSE 100 -0.7% Friday, breaking a five-week winning streak. Tariff fallout and weak global sentiment weighed, although Pearson +6.3% and Melrose +5% rose on strong earnings. UK house prices and PMI data showed tentative signs of recovery, but the labor market remains a weak spot. The index remains near record highs despite recent volatility, but sentiment is turning cautious as investors brace for potential retaliatory trade measures and this week’s BoE rate decision on Thursday.
• Asia: Asian equities were mixed. Japan's Nikkei -1.5% fell sharply as a strong yen hurt exporters and weak US jobs data revived global slowdown fears. In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +0.6% and Korea’s KOSPI +1% rebounded from recent losses, led by tech and AI stocks. China’s mainland indices were flat, but investors remain on edge ahead of July CPI data and the expiration of the US-China trade truce on Aug 12. Optimism over new trade negotiations was tempered by concerns about Washington's economic policy credibility.

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Volatility

• Volatility surged Friday as the VIX jumped 21.9% to 20.38, its highest close since late June. Short-term measures like VIX1D +18.9% and VIX9D +28.9% signal elevated near-term anxiety. The VVIX rose 11.6%, while VIX ETF flows showed strong hedging demand. The sharp rise was driven by Amazon’s drop and soft labor data. However, VIX futures at 19.6 suggest some weekend relief. Today’s SPX options pricing implies an expected ±58-point move (about 0.9%) — relatively contained, but volatility remains sensitive to macro headlines.

Digital Assets

• Bitcoin is holding steady above $114,000 following a rebound from the weekend dip, helped by spot ETF inflows. Ethereum +1.0% to $3,532, but ETHA fell -6.7% as outflows hit ETF markets. XRP jumped +1.1%, and Solana edged up. However, crypto-related stocks tumbled: IBIT -3.2%, COIN -16.7%, RIOT -8.1% as investors reacted to the weak macro data and profit-taking. Traders are now watching Wednesday’s US CPI release for the next big macro signal, while long-term sentiment remains supported by institutional adoption and crypto-specific regulatory reforms.

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields crated all along the US yield curve on Friday in a powerful bull steepener move as the revisions lower in US payrolls has the market wondering how weak the US labor market may actually be when the data consistently sees negative revisions. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield fell almost 30 basis points at one point intraday from the highs of 3.96% intraday, hitting a low of 3.66% in today’s Asian session before rising back above 3.70%. Odds of a September FOMC Meeting rate cut jumped from below 40% to above 85%. The benchmark US 10-year treasury yield plunged to 4.20% Friday, down some 17 basis points from the prior day’s close before bouncing toward 4.25% in today’s Asian session.
• As risky assets sold off on Friday on the negative US jobs report, US high yield bond spreads widened sharply, with the Bloomberg measure of High Yield bond spreads to US treasuries we track blowing 23 basis points wider to 301 basis points, the highest in more than a month.

Commodities

• Gold cemented its current rangebound behaviour, rising sharply from below USD 3,300 on Friday after the dismal US jobs report saw bond yields and the dollar drop, while raising the prospect of a September rate cut. In addition, a 1 August rollout of punitive tariffs has raised renewed concerns about US inflation and recession risks. For now, a break above USD 3,450 is needed to break gold’s sideways trading pattern, which has existed since April.
• Crude prices trade moderately lower after a group of eight OPEC+ producers, as expected, agreed to an additional 547 kbd increase from September, thereby concluding a 2.2 mbd rollback of a 2023 cut, and a 0.3 mbd increase from the UAE. The big question now remains whether prices can be sustained into the autumn months as global demand slows and Trump’s tariffs impact global trade.
• Despite Friday’s bid in precious metals, the Bloomberg Commodity Index slumped 2.7% on the week (YTD: 4.5%), with broad losses seen across most major sectors except energy. The biggest contributor by far was the 23.3% slump in NY copper prices after Trump abandoned plans to tariff imports of refined copper. Elsewhere, a bumper harvest prospect across the Northern Hemisphere continues to weigh on grain prices, especially corn and wheat.

Currencies

• The large revisions lower in US payrolls growth for May and June in the July US jobs report shocked the US dollar lower on Friday as front-end US treasury yields cratered to price in higher odds of imminent Fed easing. EURUSD lifted from lows on the day just below 1.1400 to 1.1588 before consolidating and then rallied again later in the session on news that US President Trump was firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics for supposedly manipulating jobs data ahead of the 2024 US election.
• The Japanese yen was strongest Friday after the sharp decline in US yields triggered by the US jobs report as USDJPY reversed from an intraday high of 150.90 to a low of 147.30. Overnight, USDJPY traded as low as 147.06 before bouncing.

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