Market Quick Take – 28 October 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Records in the US on U.S.–China trade truce. Europe hit fresh highs led by chips and banks. Asia strong on profit data
• Volatility: Low backdrop, Fed & tech earnings risk, expected SPX move ~±0.3%
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin/Ethereum rebound, ETF flows matter, alt-coins follow risk mood
• Currencies: USD edges weaker, JPY firms with friendly Trump-Takaichi meeting in Tokyo.
• Commodities: Gold punches down to new lows in its correction.
• Fixed Income: US treasury yields reverse back into range
• Macro events: US Oct. Consumer Confidence, Australia Sep. & Q3 CPI

Macro headlines

• The US Dallas Fed's Texas manufacturing index rose to -5.0 in October 2025, still negative. Production stayed at 5.2, indicating low growth. Company outlook flat at -0.3, with uncertainty up to 22.2. New orders at -1.7, capacity utilization at -1.1. Shipments steady at 5.8. Employment improved with the index at 2.0; 18% of firms hired, while 16% laid off. Hours worked dropped to -5.5. Price and wage pressures eased. Six-month expectations stayed positive but softer: future production at 21.0, general activity at 7.0.
• US President Trump met Japan's new PM, Sanae Takaichi, in Tokyo today to discuss trade and security just after she became Japan’s first female leader. Trump praised Japan’s plans to raise defense spending and the two signed agreements on trade and critical minerals. Trump said that the US and Japan are allies “at the strongest level”.
• The Germany GfK Consumer Confidence survey registered a new seven month low of -24.1 after -22.5 last month, still slightly above the lowest levels of the year in March and April.
• China plans to simplify the qualified foreign investor regime to attract long-term foreign capital, offering easier access and more investment options. The streamlined process includes a "green channel" for certain investors and allows use of ETFs and commodity futures trading. CSRC Chairman Wu Qing aims to make China's capital markets more inclusive and competitive amidst global market shifts.
• Canadian PM Carney said Canada is ready to negotiate with the US, and despite no contact since Thursday, emphasized a strong trading relationship and prepared contingency plans if Trump refuses to engage.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

US Government data are impacted by shutdowns and are likely to be delayed

0900 – ECB 1-year and 3-year Inflation Expectations
1300 – US Aug. Home Price Index
1400 – US Oct. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
1400 – US Oct. Consumer Confidence
1700 – US Treasury to Auction 7-year notes
0030 – Australia Sep. CPI

Earnings this week

• Today: Visa, UnitedHealth, Novartis, HSBC, NextEra, Booking Holdings, Southern Copper, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Mondelez, Ecolab, Corning, UPS, Paypal, Regeneron, Electronic Arts, Seagate Technology Holdings
• Wed: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Caterpillar, ServiceNow, Airbus, KLA, MercadoLibre
• Thu: Apple, Amazon.com, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Samsung, Merck, Shell
• Fri: ExxonMobil, Abbvie, Chevron, Linde

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: S&P 500 +1.2%, Nasdaq 100 +1.8%, Dow +0.7% as Treasury’s Bessent flagged a trade framework that could pause rare-earth curbs and avert 100% tariffs while reviving soybean buys. Semis led: Qualcomm +11.1% on new data-center AI chips, Nvidia +2.8%, Broadcom +2.2%. Amazon said it will cut up to 30,000 corporate jobs (or approximately 10% of its office workforce) to streamline costs and refocus on AI, sending shares up 1.2%. Discretionary and platforms advanced with Tesla +4.3% and Apple +2.3% ahead of Big Tech earnings. Focus stays on megacap prints and the Fed, with markets pricing a 25bp cut this week.
• Europe: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6% to a record; Stoxx 600 +0.2% also a record, lifted by improved U.S.–China tone and steady ECB expectations as the Fed looms. Autos outperformed after Porsche +1.3% on a narrower-than-feared operating loss, while industrial tech gained with Schneider Electric +2% on an upgrade and ASML +1.5%. Banks firmed with Intesa Sanpaolo +1.8% as yields eased and credit tone improved. Earnings and U.S.–China headlines set the near-term path.
• Asia: Hong Kong +1.0% to 26,434 and Shanghai +1.2% to 3,997 as hopes for a Trump–Xi deal met stronger domestic data; China’s industrial profits rose 21.6% y/y in September. Tech and healthcare paced gains: SMIC +3.5% and Wuxi Biologics +2.8%, while broader A-shares extended their decade-high run. Traders watch the Fed and any concrete trade deliverables to gauge how durable the risk bid is across North Asia.

Volatility

• U.S. equity markets remain unusually calm heading into today’s big week: the Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day meeting and major tech earnings (MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN, AAPL) are in full swing. The implied volatility seen in the main U.S. market gauge, the VIX, is hovering around 16–17, which suggests investors are low-key and comfortable for now. That said, the calm may itself signal a risk: with sentiment steady, any surprise in the rates outlook or in tech-company guidance could spark a rapid shift.
• Based on current options pricing, the expected one-day move for the SPX is around ±22 points (≈0.3%), underscoring limited perceived risk but also limited upside.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets are taking a supportive posture ahead of key macro events. Bitcoin has bounced back above $115 k and Ethereum is trading near the $4.2 k mark after a ~7% one-day advance, pointing to regained momentum. Interest in institutional flows remains high: ETFs tied to Bitcoin and Ethereum are still on investors’ radars, especially given the backdrop of potential U.S. rate cuts and less tense U.S.–China trade talk. Among alt-coins, look for names like Solana, XRP and meme-coins to follow broader-risk‐on cues rather than drive things themselves.
• In short: for crypto investors today, the key question is whether the macro angle keeps flowing in or stalls—if the Fed signals caution, this space could either accelerate or pause.

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields rallied after initial weakness yesterday, taking the benchmark 2-year treasury yield back within the range below 3.50%, trading 3.48% this morning, while the benchmark 10-year yield likewise backed into the range below 4.00%, trading 3.98% this morning after a 4.04% high yesterday. Solid demand was seen yesterday at auctions of 2-year and 5-year treasuries.
• US high yield corporate bonds rallied again yesterday in line with surging risk appetite, taking the Bloomberg index we track of the spread between high yield bonds and US treasuries another nine basis points tighter, to 272 basis points.

Commodities

• Gold’s correction is gathering pace, with support at 3,972 faltering overnight, suggesting a potential extension lower to the next technical area near 3,850. Recent price action suggests the high for the year may already be in, as rising caution and stronger equities temper momentum. The case for holding gold remains, but whether it justified a 50% year-to-date surge is debatable. The next leg higher likely belongs to the year 2026, judging from past consolidation patterns — the last one in April lasted four months.
• Silver punched down through 47 per ounce late yesterday, hitting a 46.10 low, but unlike gold not posting new lows this morning.

Currencies

• The US dollar rally that never really got going reversed further yesterday, with EURUSD trading back above 1.1650, while GBPUSD pulled back above 1.3350.
• USDJPY and other JPY crosses corrected lower yesterday as Trump was visiting Tokyo with friendly overtures on both sides. Japan’s minister of growth strategy said that authorities are monitoring the impact of JPY weakness on Japan’s economy. USDJPY traded as low as 151.76 overnight before bouncing. This after the 153.26 high yesterday.

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