Market Quick Take – 26 August 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: U.S. paused after Friday’s surge ahead of Nvidia; Europe slipped with banks soft but M&A spikes; Asia firmer led by Hong Kong and mainland China; UK shut for Summer Bank Holiday
• Volatility: Vol stays calm in mild contango; options price a 0.9% SPX move
• Digital Assets: Ether rises while Bitcoin is flat; U.S. spot BTC and ETH ETFs see net inflows
• Fixed Income: US yield curve steepens, Germany-France yield spread widening on French political turmoil
• Currencies: EURUSD chops lower than back slightly higher French political turmoil versus Trump Fed interference
• Commodities: Trouble at the Fed supports gold, crude pauses after four-day gain
• Macro events: US Aug. Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Macro headlines

• US President Trump moved to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage document falsification, but she says he lacks authority to fire her, and she won’t quit. The clash could open the door for Trump to secure a Fed board majority.
• Trump threatened to impose fresh tariffs and export restrictions on advanced technology and semiconductors in retaliation against other nations’ digital services taxes that hit American technology companies.
• U.S. new single-family home sales fell 0.6% in July 2025 to an annual rate of 652,000 units, surpassing expectations of 630,000 but down from June's revised 4.1% increase.
• The Dallas Fed's Texas manufacturing activity index decreased to -1.8 in August 2025 from 0.9 in July, signalling mild contraction. The production index dropped to 15.3 from 21.3 but stayed above average. New orders turned positive at 5.8, the first rise since January. Capacity utilization fell to 13.7 from 17.3. Shipments surged 12 points to 14.2, a three-year high. The employment index remained at 8.8, with 20% of firms hiring and 11% laying off staff.
• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index dipped to -0.19 in July from -0.18 in June, indicating U.S. economic activity was below trend for the fourth month. While only one category worsened, three continued to negatively impact the index.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1230 – US July Durable Goods Orders
1400 – US Aug. Conference Board Consumer Confidence 

Earnings events

Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.

• Wednesday: Nvidia , Crowdstrike, Snowflake
• Thursday: Dell, Marvell Technologies, Autodesk

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA

Digital Assets

Bitcoin closed at $110,032 (−0.1% d/d on the 00:00 UTC cut) and Ether at $4,435 (+1.3%). U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded +$219.1m net inflows, led by IBIT (+$65.6m) and ARKB (+$61.2m); U.S. spot ETH ETFs added +$443.9m, led by BlackRock ETHA (+$314.9m) and Fidelity FETH (+$87.4m).

Volatility

Spot VIX sits below the Sep future (14.79 vs 17.00), leaving a mild contango that keeps carry positive for short-vol trades. VIX1D at 8.06 signals low near-term event risk; with SPX at 6,439.32, the VIX-based daily move is ~60 points, or 0.9%.

Fixed Income

Commodities

• Crude futures eased after a four-day advance, with Brent and WTI stalling near USD 70 and 65 respectively. Focus remains on Trump’s clash with the Fed and potential supply shifts as the US threatens to double tariffs on Indian imports in response to its Russian crude purchases.
• Gold briefly touched a two-week high after Trump moved to oust Fed Governor Cook, fueling concerns about Fed independence and prospects for looser policy. Gains faded, however, as the dollar recovered after Cook insisted, she would not resign. 

Currencies

• The US dollar recovered much of its lost ground yesterday after Friday’s dovish Jackson Hole Fed symposium speech. EURUSD traded nearly all the way to 1.1600 yesterday after 1.1740+on Friday, but then rebounded to 1.1640+ into this morning – with French political turmoil weighing on the Euro, while the US dollar is perhaps in part on the risk of further political turmoil in France (see fixed income comments above).

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