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Market Quick Take - 26 August 2025
Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team
Market Quick Take – 26 August 2025
Market drivers and catalysts
- Equities: U.S. paused after Friday’s surge ahead of Nvidia; Europe slipped with banks soft but M&A spikes; Asia firmer led by Hong Kong and mainland China; UK shut for Summer Bank Holiday
- Volatility: Vol stays calm in mild contango; options price a 0.9% SPX move
- Digital Assets: Ether rises while Bitcoin is flat; U.S. spot BTC and ETH ETFs see net inflows
- Fixed Income: US yield curve steepens, Germany-France yield spread widening on French political turmoil
- Currencies: EURUSD chops lower than back slightly higher French political turmoil versus Trump Fed interference
- Commodities: Trouble at the Fed supports gold, crude pauses after four-day gain
- Macro events: US Aug. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Macro headlines
- US President Trump moved to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage document falsification, but she says he lacks authority to fire her, and she won’t quit. The clash could open the door for Trump to secure a Fed board majority.
- Trump threatened to impose fresh tariffs and export restrictions on advanced technology and semiconductors in retaliation against other nations’ digital services taxes that hit American technology companies.
- U.S. new single-family home sales fell 0.6% in July 2025 to an annual rate of 652,000 units, surpassing expectations of 630,000 but down from June's revised 4.1% increase.
- The Dallas Fed's Texas manufacturing activity index decreased to -1.8 in August 2025 from 0.9 in July, signalling mild contraction. The production index dropped to 15.3 from 21.3 but stayed above average. New orders turned positive at 5.8, the first rise since January. Capacity utilization fell to 13.7 from 17.3. Shipments surged 12 points to 14.2, a three-year high. The employment index remained at 8.8, with 20% of firms hiring and 11% laying off staff.
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index dipped to -0.19 in July from -0.18 in June, indicating U.S. economic activity was below trend for the fourth month. While only one category worsened, three continued to negatively impact the index.
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
1230 – US July Durable Goods Orders
1400 – US Aug. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Earnings events
Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.
- Wednesday: Nvidia , Crowdstrike, Snowflake
- Thursday: Dell, Marvell Technologies, Autodesk
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA
U.S. stocks eased as investors consolidated gains and positioned for Nvidia’s results on Wednesday and Friday’s PCE. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Dow lost 349 points (−0.8%), and the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.3%. Nvidia rose 1.0% ahead of earnings, while Keurig Dr Pepper slumped 11.5% after agreeing to acquire JDE Peet’s for about €15.7bn and outlining a split of its beverages and coffee businesses. Focus now turns to mega-cap guidance and the inflation print to validate the post-Jackson Hole pivot.
Europe
European stocks retreated, trimming last week’s rally as rate expectations and deal news dominated. The Euro STOXX 50 fell 0.8% and the STOXX 600 slipped 0.4%. JDE Peet’s surged 17.5% on Keurig Dr Pepper’s takeover announcement, while Puma jumped 16% on reports of Pinault family interest. Ørsted tumbled 16.4% after U.S. authorities halted the Revolution Wind offshore project, underscoring policy risk in renewables.
Asia
Asia’s tone improved into local policy support. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.9% to 25,830 and mainland China’s Shanghai Composite gained 1.5% to 3,884 as ample liquidity and housing measures buoyed tech, property, and financials. With Nvidia earnings in view and China PMI due, traders balanced AI-linked sentiment with onshore stimulus expectations.
UK
FTSE 100 was closed for the Summer Bank Holiday. The next session opens today with energy and miners in focus as global commodities set the lead.
Digital Assets
Bitcoin closed at $110,032 (−0.1% d/d on the 00:00 UTC cut) and Ether at $4,435 (+1.3%). U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded +$219.1m net inflows, led by IBIT (+$65.6m) and ARKB (+$61.2m); U.S. spot ETH ETFs added +$443.9m, led by BlackRock ETHA (+$314.9m) and Fidelity FETH (+$87.4m).
Volatility
Spot VIX sits below the Sep future (14.79 vs 17.00), leaving a mild contango that keeps carry positive for short-vol trades. VIX1D at 8.06 signals low near-term event risk; with SPX at 6,439.32, the VIX-based daily move is ~60 points, or 0.9%.
Fixed Income
- US Treasury saw no follow-on action from Friday’s Jackson Hole speech, with yields sticking slightly higher after Friday’s drop. The benchmark 10-year treasury yield has unwound much of the drop from Friday, crawling back to 4.30% after Friday’s close at 4.25%, while the benchmark 30-year T-bond yield rose toward the top of the range overnight, hitting 4.93% this morning in early European hours.
- The Germany-France yield spreads have widened aggressively since mid-month with France’s Prime Minister facing a vote of confidence on 8 September to back up his budget plan for grappling with France’s excessive deficits – a vote that may fail and keep a political cloud over the country. The 10-year Germany France yield spread stands at 75 basis points this morning versus about 65 basis points less than two weeks ago.
- Japanese government yields remain pinned near the cycle- and multi-year highs.
Commodities
- Crude futures eased after a four-day advance, with Brent and WTI stalling near USD 70 and 65 respectively. Focus remains on Trump’s clash with the Fed and potential supply shifts as the US threatens to double tariffs on Indian imports in response to its Russian crude purchases.
- Gold briefly touched a two-week high after Trump moved to oust Fed Governor Cook, fueling concerns about Fed independence and prospects for looser policy. Gains faded, however, as the dollar recovered after Cook insisted, she would not resign.
Currencies
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The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..
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