Market Quick Take – 25 June 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US and Europe stayed mixed, while Asia rebounded sharply as Micron revived the memory-chip trade.
• Volatility: Equities recovering on Micron's beat, VIX near 19 with VIX9D close to spot, pricing genuine near-term risk into PCE
• Digital Assets: Crypto stabilising after a multi-week slide, IBIT put flow signals holders protecting rather than exiting
• Commodities: Gold, silver and copper extend decline; oil erases wartime gains
• Fixed Income: Global bonds in strong rally as crude oil prices plunge. US long end strongly bid.
• Currencies: US dollar hits new peak Wednesday before consolidating. Sterling stays strong in crosses.
• Macro: US May PCE Inflation

Macro

• US-Iran peace efforts have improved the oil supply outlook. Confidence in a lasting deal has increased tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz with signals on, and buyers now face more crude offers from the Middle East and West Africa. A temporary US waiver for already-loaded Iranian oil and continued releases from US strategic reserves will further boost supply, and Brent’s prompt spread shifted into bearish contango on Wednesday for the first time since the conflict began.
• US new single-family home sales fell 7.3% in May 2026 to an annualized 580,000, a four-month low and well below forecasts. Higher mortgage rates weighed on demand, with sharp declines in the West and South and gains in the Northeast and Midwest. Inventory rose to 10.3 months of supply, the highest since 2009, while the median sales price increased slightly to $424,900.
• Trump said Iran has told the US it is not charging tolls, insurance, or other fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. He warned that if this proves false, negotiations will end immediately and stressed that no money has been given to Iran or released from its funds.
• The Australian economy added 40,300 jobs in May, reversing the previous month’s losses, while the jobless rate dipped to 4.4%, validation of the Reserve Bank’s view the labor market remains tight. Separate data released by the ABS showed household spending jumped 1.3% in May from a month before and climbed 5.5% from a year earlier.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0645 – France June Consumer Confidence
• 1230 – US May PCE Inflation
• 1230 – US May Durable Goods Orders
• 1700 – US to Sell USD 44 billion 7-year Notes

Earnings events

• Thursday: H&M Hennes & Mauritz, Darden Restaurants

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.1%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.4%, while the Dow rose 0.4% as tech weakness again offset broader market breadth. Microsoft lost 2.3% as megacap tech remained under pressure, while Apollo Global fell 6.1% and weighed on the S&P 500. Wendy’s surged 25.7% as retail traders revived the meme-stock playbook. After the close, Micron jumped double digits on strong AI memory guidance, lifting chip sentiment and turning attention back to whether demand can justify stretched valuations.
• Europe: The Stoxx 600 edged up 0.1%, the DAX fell 0.6%, the FTSE 100 gained 0.3%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 slipped 0.3% as investors balanced lower oil prices, dollar strength and sector rotation. Rheinmetall dropped 18.7% after Germany scrapped a major frigate programme it had been expected to win. Segro rose 17.4% after rejecting Prologis’ £12.6 billion takeover approach as too low and opportunistically timed. Investors now watch whether lower commodity prices help margins or simply signal softer demand.
• Asia: Asian markets rallied on Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei up 4.4% and South Korea’s Kospi up 5.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.4% and mainland China’s Shanghai Composite rose 0.4%. Micron’s strong guidance eased fears that the AI memory trade had run too hot, helping Samsung Electronics rise 6.2% and SK Hynix jump as much as 11.6% after its planned $29.4 billion US listing. SoftBank and Tokyo Electron also advanced in Japan as chip optimism returned. The key question is whether this is a durable rebound or just a very expensive sigh of relief.

Volatility

• The S&P 500 closed at 7,358 on Wednesday, extending a two-session pullback from the prior week's highs, before S&P 500 futures recovered 0.54% and Nasdaq 100 futures added 1.76% in pre-market Thursday after Micron Technology guided quarterly revenue to approximately $50 billion, sharply above the $43.2 billion consensus, confirming AI-driven memory demand remains supply-constrained. The VIX closed at 18.63, with VIX9D at 18.07 — unusually close to the 30-day measure, signalling that near-term uncertainty is running as elevated as medium-term uncertainty ahead of today's May PCE release. VIX3M stands at 20.37, VIX6M at 22.40.
• Options positioning retained a cautious bias heading into the session. The SKEW index stood at 145.30, up 1.51%, reflecting sustained demand for tail protection. SPX flow was two-sided but tilted defensively: large deeply-in-the-money put structures were rolled across July, August and September tenors as portfolio hedges, while call structures across the same window saw fresh buying. A large bilateral strangle appeared in SPCX across September expiry, the first institutional-scale positioning on that chain. Concentrated call activity in MU reflected post-earnings repositioning following Micron's blowout guidance. MOVE closed at 69.06, with GVZ surging 15.3% as gold fell below $4,000 for the first time since November.
• Based on SPX options pricing, the market is currently implying a weekly expected move of roughly 82 points, or 1.10%, suggesting a range of approximately 7,276 to 7,440 around the 7,358 close. Today's options expiry continues to show moderate downside skew, with puts trading at richer levels than comparable calls.

Digital Assets

• Bitcoin stabilised after a multi-week retreat, trading around $60,700 in early European hours Thursday, recovering approximately 1.5% from the prior session. Ethereum held near $1,618. The recovery coincided with the rebound in global equity sentiment following Micron's earnings guidance, which revived appetite for AI-adjacent risk. Bitcoin is also facing a large options expiry today, adding near-term uncertainty to a market already navigating institutional outflows and a firm dollar backdrop.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded six consecutive weeks of net outflows through 18 June, reflecting sustained institutional caution. IBIT traded at 33.87 and ETHA at 11.92, both below their mid-June levels. Against that, Franklin Templeton filed with the SEC for two ETFs designed to convert US equity dividends into Bitcoin exposure, allocating approximately 5% of assets to the digital asset, signalling continued product development despite the softer near-term flow environment.
• IBIT options flow was dominated by large January 2027 put structures, deeply in the money, consistent with holders adding downside protection rather than reducing exposure. ETHA attracted put flow across September expiry. MicroStrategy drew put-heavy activity across multiple near-term and medium-term tenors, with some offsetting short-dated call positioning. On the regulatory front, Binance's MiCA application in Greece is on course for rejection ahead of the 1 July transitional deadline, with questions raised over whether European central bank institutions played an informal role in the process.

Commodities

• Brent crude trades below USD 73 and WTI below USD 70, extending a four-session decline that has all but erased the war-related risk premium. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has created a short-term wave of supply, pushing prices back towards levels that may prove difficult to sustain once the backlog of stranded barrels has cleared and releases from strategic reserves are scaled back. Longer term, however, slower demand growth driven by electrification and fuel switching may continue to cap upside potential. Meanwhile, over the past 11 weeks, combined US commercial and strategic crude inventories have fallen by 135 million barrels to a multi-decade low.
• Gold slumped below USD 4,000 to a seven-month low, pressured by a resurgent dollar and concerns that higher funding costs may yet lie ahead. The technical breakdown and a 29% correction from January's record high continue to weigh on sentiment, leaving the near-term outlook challenged despite steady central bank demand providing an important source of underlying support. At the same time, a continued decline in energy prices and lower bond yields may eventually ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates.
• Silver, meanwhile, tumbled to a low of USD 55.6 and retracing 61.8% of the rally from its 2022 low at USD 17.56. With industrial metals also suffering a setback, silver has become increasingly exposed to rates related growth concerns, helping drive the XAUXAG ratio higher towards 70.
• Copper broke key support at USD 6.15 on Wednesday, triggering a wave of technical selling and hedge fund long liquidation. As with precious metals, the main catalysts behind the slide to a seven-week low were a stronger dollar and the Fed's recent hawkish stance, both of which have weighed on the outlook for demand. Prices have since staged a modest rebound, but the technical outlook remains fragile below the mentioned level.

Fixed Income

• US treasuries rallied, with a particularly strong rally at the long end of the curve, flattening the 2-10 slope to its shallowest level, at 25 basis points, since March of 2025. The move was in part inspired by a fresh drop in crude oil prices lowering inflation expectations, but the perception of a more hawkish tone from last week’s FOMC meeting has been the chief driver of the flattening move. The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield fell a chunky 10 basis points to below 4.40% for the first time since early May and the 30-year benchmark likewise fell some ten basis points to 4.85%, the lowest since early March.
• European bonds rallied strongly yesterday, with the benchmark German 10-year Bund yield falling over five basis points to below 2.87%, the lowest level since mid-March and back into the range that prevailed in the months that preceded the Iran war.
• While US treasuries were strongly bid Wednesday, US high yield debt was not, as the the Bloomberg index we track of high yield bond spreads to US treasuries rose seven basis points to 277 basis points, the highest since early April.

Currencies

• The US dollar rallied to fresh local highs Wednesday before rolling over slightly as US treasury yields plunged. EURUSD hit its new low for the year at 1.1325 before rebounding to 1.1360-70, while USDJPY remained capped in the 161.80 area, just fifteen pips below that forty-year high from 2024 at 161.95.
• Sterling has strengthened in the crosses since Keir Starmer resigned as UK Prime Minister on Monday, with EURGBP trading as low as 0.8603 Wednesday, its lowest level since August of last year, before bouncing back toward 0.8625. The proximate cause of Wednesday’s surge in sterling may have been Labour politician Wes Streeting announcing his support for Andy Burnham as new Labour leader and therefore next Prime Minister. Streeting is seen by many as a likely candidate for the Chancellor of the Exchequer position, and one likely to pursue a more fiscally cautious approach than some of the alternatives.

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