Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Global Macro Strategist
Summary: This is the first of a series of Macro Dragon Specials that will come through over the year - in this first series we will attempt to capture KVPs current thoughts on global macro and cross-assets over 2020, current outlook and assumptions, current strategic positioning views, risks, hedges and contingency plans... as well as what seems to be consensus vs what the market does not seem to be focusing on. Note these are very different from the daily Macro Dragon cross-asset views
2020-Jan-28
This is the first of a series of Macro Dragon Specials that will come through over the year – in this first series we’ll attempt to capture KVP’s current thoughts on global macro & cross-assets over 2020, current outlook & assumptions, current strategic (long-term) positioning views, risks, hedges & contingency plans… as well as what seems to be consensus vs what the market does not seem to be focusing on (yet). Note these are very different from the daily macro dragon cross-asset views
This is MDS S1E3, as always all thoughts / comments / constructive feedback appreciated
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(mixed certainty & probability)
Obvious key risk to this meta trend is some kind of scenario that results in a massive growth spike, sustained inflationary pressures that somehow force central banks to hike despite the level of debt in the system.