Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Macro Dragon = Daily Cross-Asset Global Views
KVP runs us through some contingency planing around a highly probabilistic break of the phase one deal - likely before the end of 1H20. End of the day, Trump will do what it takes to win voters in his bid for re-election & looking tough on China, will get him clicks & votes.
2020-Jan-11
We’ll be shaking things up from KVP’s side, so expect a lot more trade views going forward, as well as 20 long-term trades views for 2020 – which KVP will do a special piece & mini-series on.
Ok let’s get after it…
Jan 15th seems to be the D-date for the signing for the signing of the phase one deal – I believe China’s officials will be flying in a few days earlier to make sure all the t's & dots are aligned.
No hard view here from KVP, it remains a window dressing exercise as far as he is concerned.
Long in spirit, short in details – it should all go through, for now.
KVP still thinks the biggest tactical 1Q20/2Q20 risk is eventual breakdown of US-China deal – the probability here is high & he would urge all serious traders to spend some time on scenario planning on a phase-one deal breakoff.
It would be tactical in nature & usual suspects in execution – this is going to be “easy” money if you are on point when the news breaks:
(also steepners should work, plus love those as strategic trades – watch out for KVP’s 20-4-2020… )
If we go the entire 2020 without a Phase One deal break – that would actually qualify for an outrageous prediction in KVP’s book.
Still think a combative Trump vs. China, adds to his Re-Election capital & chances…
So watch out for that potential strategy as we get closer to 3 Nov 20
AI: The good, the bad, and the bubble
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Steen Jakobsen,
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The emergence of advanced AI systems is by far the most surprising event this year, turning everything upside down, while risks and benefits are debated. AI will also become an arms race between the US and China.
Peter Garnry,
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As China navigates global fragmentation, its cycle of technology application, productivity enhancement, and growth is threatened by US breakthroughs in generative AI, limited computing power, and geopolitical tensions.
Redmond Wong,
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Japan’s expertise in semiconductors and robotic integration could be the foundation of AI dominance. Combining two of this year's themes, Japanese equities and artificial intelligence, brings a wave of opportunities.
Charu Chanana,
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The AI fever has turned the technology into a darling, pushing crypto further into no-man’s-land. There are striking similarities between AI and crypto, and if these are to come full circle, AI won't be spared for bubbles.
Mads Eberhardt,
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Stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI) have appeared on investors' radars. Expectations are high, but it may be necessary to consider how to get exposure to AI in a diversified way.
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
The USD is on its back foot as markets celebrate an eventual Fed rate peak and steady long US yields. The stakes are even higher for the Japanese yen if longer major sovereign yield curves have to price in economic acceleration.
John J. Hardy,
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Ole S. Hansen,
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Althea Spinozzi,
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