Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Last week Tesla announced Q1 deliveries of 386,810, which missed Wall Street expectations of 454,200. The stock fell 6% as the market was concerned with Tesla’s high valuation of 29x operating income over the next 12 months (BYD is valued 5.8x the operating income for same period). However, we saw some very strong gains in commodities. Broad gains led by Industrial Metals drove the Bloomberg Commodity Index to a 6-month high. Gold broke the $2300 level and Brent traded above $91 as the conflict in the Middle East showed signs of escalating at a time where demand remains robust.
Tesla's share price drops on poor Q1 deliveries
EV fears turn real on big Tesla miss on Q1 deliveries
Bloomberg Commodity Index lifts to a six-month high
Commodity market sees broad gains, enjoying best week in nine months
Gold continues its strong rally
What's next as gold reaches USD 2,300?
This week, investor focus turns to the CPI inflation data and the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. This week’s US CPI data will be a key test of whether the inflation jump of the last two months was just a bump in the disinflation road, or if markets need to push expectations of rate cuts further out the curve. On Thursday, the ECB lines up for their rate policy meeting. The ECB will likely remain committed to a June rate cut as disinflation progresses, limiting EUR upside.