Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 20 December 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 20 December 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 20 December 2023

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 20 December 2023

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Summary:  US stock futures trade steady following fresh advances on Tuesday after robust housing starts print added to the optimism of a resilient US economy while moderation in inflation may allow the Fed to cut rates, despite policymakers saying they are in no hurry to start that process. Stocks in Asia rose along with Treasuries, led by the Nikkei hitting a 33-year high with exporters enjoying the benefits of low rates and a competitive (weak) yen. With just a few days of trading left the positive momentum is likely to be maintained with focus on Thursday's US third quarter gross domestic product print and Friday's personal consumption expenditures - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Equities: Mixed sentiment out of the Asian session with Nikkei 225 futures being the winner up 1.4% as the JPY gave back gains yesterday on remarks from BoJ Governor Ueda saying the market was wrong on its expectations for the central bank to lift policy rates into positive territory. FedEx shares declined 10% in extended trading hours as the company lowered its revenue guidance for FY24 and said that peak holiday season volume was like last year. Liquidity is coming down in equities with S&P 500 futures volume already around half of normal levels so expect little action with equity futures in Europe and the US cruising into the new year.

FX: After the BoJ kept its monetary policies unchanged, the post-Monetary Policy Meeting communication was deemed somewhat more dovish than anticipated. There were no hints of leaning towards ending its ultra-loose monetary policy in Q1 2024. As a result, USDJPY surged to a high of 144.96 before retracing to trade around 143.70 in Tokyo today.

Commodities: Crude oil extended its rally with the driver being the elevated risks posed by potential attacks from Yemen’s Houthi rebels on tankers passing through the Red Sea, a vital route between Europe and Asia. Brent crude oil trades near $80 with the rerouting of ships causing delays while raising supply concerns. Gold trades above $2040 and near the upper end of its current range with support at $2021 as the market continues to price in a succession of rate cuts in 2024, potentially starting as early as March. Coffee surged above $2 per pound for the first time since April on concerns about El Niño related heat damage in Brazil at a time where stocks are at a 24-year low.

Fixed income: Treasury yields finished the Tuesday session nearly unchanged, before falling a couple of basis points overnight. This stability occurred amid robust housing starts data, mixed messages from Fed officials regarding rate cut anticipations, and a dovish-leaning Bank of Japan. The 2-year yield trades at 4.42%, while the 10-year yield trades softer to sit just 2 bps above last week’s low point at 3.89%

Macro: As anticipated, the BoJ maintained short-term interest rates at minus 0.1% and 10-year JGB yields around zero per cent, with a 1% reference rate serving as the soft upper bound of the range The next BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting is scheduled for January 22-23. During the press conference on Tuesday, Governor Ueda noted that the BoJ would incorporate new information in its policy decision and could not completely rule out a policy surprise. Therefore, the January meeting remains a ‘live’ meeting." US housing starts increased 14.8% M/M to 1,560k in November, surpassing the median forecast of 1,360k. Building permits fell 2.5% M/M to 1,460k, slightly below the 1,465k projected. The surge in housing starts is largely due to an 18% increase in the single-family component.

Technical analysis highlights: S&P 500 uptrend extended, likely to test all-time high at 4,818. Nasdaq 100 testing all-time highs, likely to be taken out. DAX top and reversal pattern correction likely, support at 16,528 and 16,060. EURUSD likely to testing key resistance at 1.10 once again. USDJPY rebounding likely to 145.40, support at 141.55. AUDJPY above key resist at 96.10, uptrend resumed. Gold potential to 2,070.  WTI Crude oil rebounding could move to 77, Brent to 82. US 10-year T-yields below support at 3.95 next support at 3.83

In the news: Fed’s Bostic Says He Doesn’t See Urgency to Cut Interest Rates (Bloomberg), FedEx shares tumble 9% after weaker demand hit revenue outlook (CNBC), Oil rises 1% as Red Sea shipping concerns unnerve traders (Reuters)

Macro events (all times are GMT): UK CPI (Nov) exp 0.1% & 4.3% vs 0% and 4.6% prior (0600), US Existing Home Sales (Nov) exp. 3.78m vs 3.79m prior (1400), US Consumer Confidence (Dec) exp 104.5 vs 102 prior (1400), EIA’s Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report (1430),

Earnings events: Earnings releases today from Aurubus, General Mills, Toro, and Micron Technology. Our key focus is Micron Technology which reports FY24 Q1 earnings (ending 30 November) after the US market close with analysts expecting revenue growth of 11% y/y as consumer electronics demand is coming back and prices are improving for memory chips.

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar


The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region


Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.