Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 19 April 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 19 April 2024 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 19 April 2024

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 19 April 2024

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Key points:

  • Equities: Down across the board on Israel’s attack deep into Iran as geopolitical tensions rise.
  • FX: Dollar strength resumes
  • Commodities: Crude’s risk premium receives a fresh boost on MidEast tensions
  • Fixed Income: Federal Reserve members' speeches endorse the "high-for-longer" message, pushing yields higher.
  • Economic data: UK retail sales and German PPI

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Equities: All major indices are down across the board following Israel’s attack deep into Iran in a retaliation move from Iran’s recent missile attack on Israel. Japanese equities are down 2.6%, Chinese equities are down 1.3%, while Stoxx 50 futures are pointing 1.3% lower ahead of the European session. S&P 500 futures are down 0.8% after being down as much as 1.7%. The attack, but also the reaction across markets, shows that geopolitical risks are real and should be taken seriously by all investors. A further escalation between Israel and Iran could push energy prices higher and deal blow to economic growth and equity risk sentiment. Last night, after the US market close, Netflix reported strong Q1 results with net change in paying subscribers of 9.3mn vs est. 4.8mn and EPS of $5.28 vs est. $4.52 underscoring that Netflix’s profitability initiatives are working well. Netflix also said it expects growth to slow sending the shares 5% lower in extended trading. Key focus today is of course the response from Iran and the market’s interpretation of what happens next in the Middle East.

FX: The dollar trades back to a five-month high after reversing its early Thursday slide on hawkish Fed comments, strong data and haven bids following an Israeli strike against Iran overnight. EURCHF took a look below 0.969 and USDJPY pushed below 154 to lows of 153.60 before reversing back higher and intervention threat remains especially if the move extends towards 155 again. AUDJPY dropped to sub-99 and AUDCHF tested a break below 0.58. Meanwhile, safe haven Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver (XAGUSD) erased the surge, as did Bitcoin which was down to $60k at one point ahead of the halving this weekend. Response from oil related currencies NOK and CAD was more limited. The EURUSD came under pressure as well as the dollar rally resumed and slipped below 1.0640 after a test of 1.0690 failed.

Commodities: Brent briefly soared back above $90 before reversing lower after Iranian media downplayed a retaliatory strike by Israel. Overall, most of the five-dollar range seen this past week has been driven traders attempt to quantify the level of risk premium needed to reflect heightened tensions but with no impact on supply. Expect prices to bid ahead of the weekend. Copper prices reached a fresh 22-month high near $4.5, supported by tight supply and focus on rising demand for green transition and AI. Gold briefly broke $2400 on the Israel attack reports before pairing back gains. Still on track for a fifth weekly gain despite strong US data, hawkish comments from Fed members and a stronger dollar

Fixed income: US Treasuries experienced a decline yesterday following remarks from Fed officials Williams and Bostic, reinforcing expectations of prolonged interest rate levels. Earlier data from the Philadelphia Fed and jobless claims indicated a robust economy reinforcing this concept. The ten-year yields increased by 4 basis points to 4.6%, while two-year yields surged by almost 6 basis points, closing at 4.98%. The 5-year TIPS auction demonstrated strength, stopping through by 3 basis points. In comparison, European sovereign bonds outperformed US Treasuries, with German two-year yields rising by 3.7 basis points to 2.97% and ten-year yields climbing by 3 basis points to 2.49%. Attention now turns to next week's release of US preliminary GDP data and the upcoming 2-, 7-, and 10-year bond sales.

Macro: US jobless claims again suggested that labor market remains strong. Claims for the week of April 13 were unchanged at 212k, marginally shy of the expected 215k, leaving the 4-wk average unchanged at 214.5k. Fed speakers were a key focus, and Bostic repeated that a rate cut may be unlikely this year while Williams and Kashkari added to the hawkish rhetoric. Williams, a key voice in the Fed committee and a voter, even warned that if the data called for higher rates, the Fed would hike. Japan’s March CPI came in marginally softer-than-expected with headline at 2.7% YoY vs. 2.8% expected and previous. Core CPI was at 2.6% YoY vs. 2.7% expected and the core-core measure was at 2.9% YoY from 3.2% previous and 3.0% expected. This reduces the risk of another rate hike at the BOJ meeting next week, after comments from Governor Ueda earlier that yen-induced inflation will be key to monitor.

Technical analysis highlights: Downtrend unfolding in Equities. Futures lower overnight. S&P500 support at 4,953 and 4,845. Nasdaq 100 support at 17,128 and 16,963,128. DAX support at 17,620 and 17,326. 
EURUSD minor correction seems over, downtrend resuming potential to 1.0565 and 1.05. GBPUSD resuming downtrend, support at 1.2375. USDJPY stalling but uptrend potential to 155.30. EURJPY volatile correction testing rising trendline, uptrend with potential to 166.30. USDCAD uptrend intact, potential to 1.39. AUDUSD resuming downtrend, support 0.6335 Gold range bound 2,319-2,431. WTI bouncing from support at 82.56., uptrend potential to 90.37 Brent from support at 87.35, resist at 93.05. US 10-year T-yield minor correction possible down to around 4.50 but uptrend intact

Volatility: The VIX closed down yesterday at $18.00 (-0.21 | -1.15%), with the VVIX and SKEW indices also declining. However, hawkish comments from several Fed speakers are keeping volatility elevated. There are no major economic news releases today, but geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are expected to cause a significant rise in volatility. This is already reflected in the futures market, where the VIX futures are up at 18.550 (+1.165 | +6.71%). The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are both down considerably overnight, at 5008.50 (-40.50 | -0.80%) and 17378.50 (-168.50 | -0.97%) respectively. These signs point towards a negative market open, which will likely impact option premium prices across the board. The top 10 most traded stock options yesterday, in order, were TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, AMD, TSM, AMZN, META, MSFT, MU, and DJT.

In the news: Netflix Reports Record Profits As Subscriber Growth Tops Estimates (Forbes), TSMC beats first-quarter revenue and profit expectations on strong AI chip demand (CNBC), Modi Bets on Third Term as India’s Massive Election Kicks Off (Bloomberg), No Link Too Tenuous for Retail Traders in China AI Gold Rush (Bloomberg), BOJ's Ueda signals possible rate hike if weak yen boosts inflation (Reuters)

Macro events (all times are GMT): UK Retail Sales (Mar) exp 0.3% & 1% vs flat & -0.4% prior (0600), Germany PPI (Mar) exp 0.1% & 3.1% vs –0.4% &-4.1% prior (0600). CFTC and ICE weekly commitment of traders reports (2000), Speakers: BoE’s Ramsden; Fed's Goolsbee

Earnings events: Today’s key earnings release is American Express reporting before the US market open with analysts expecting revenue growth of 10.4% YoY and EPS of $2.96 up 23.5% YoY.

  • Today: American Express, Schlumberger, Procter & Gamble

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar


The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region


Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.