Global Market Quick Take: Asia – June 9, 2025

Note: This is marketing material.

• Macro: US and Chinese negotiators meet in London, focusing on rare-earth exports
• Equities: S&P 500 up 1% to close at 6,000, its highest since February
• FX: DXY rose above 99.3 on strong US job data; USDJPY rose above 144.70
• Commodities: Gold extends losses breaking below $3,300
• Fixed income: Treasuries plunged after solid May jobs report

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• US nonfarm payrolls increased by 139K in May 2025, slowing from April's revised 147K but above the forecast of 126K. Health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance saw job gains, while federal government jobs fell by 22K, totaling a 59K decline since January. Manufacturing employment decreased by 8K, and March and April figures were revised down.
• Trump announced progress on a complex China deal with potential for significant revenue, and President Xi agreed to resume rare earth mineral exports. China's Foreign Ministry stated Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8th-13th, with a China-US economic and trade consultation meeting scheduled during the visit.
• Japan's GDP was flat in Q1 2025, improving from an estimated 0.2% contraction but slowing sharply from 0.6% growth in Q4. Since 1980, Japan's GDP growth rate has averaged 0.42%, peaking at 5.30% in Q3 2020.
• Canada's unemployment rate increased to 7.0% in May 2025, up from 6.9% in April and the highest since September 2021, surpassing expectations. The number of jobless individuals rose by 51,900 to 1,600,000, indicating potential impacts from US tariffs.

Equities: 

• US - US stocks surged on Friday, with the S&P 500 up 1% to surpass 6,000, its highest since February, driven by a strong jobs report and optimism over US-China trade talks. The Dow rose by 442 points, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.2%, boosted by Tesla's 3.7% rebound after Elon Musk and President Trump's tensions eased. The labour market added 139K jobs in May, beating predictions and reducing immediate slowdown fears. Trump hinted at renewed US-China trade negotiations starting next week in London but urged Fed Chairman Powell to lower interest rates by one percentage point, calling it economic "rocket fuel." Major tech stocks like Nvidia, Meta, and Apple saw gains. Throughout the week, the S&P and Dow rose over 1%, while the Nasdaq increased by 2%.
• EU - Frankfurt's DAX trimmed early losses to close slightly lower at around 24,295 on Friday, as a strong US May jobs report eased fears of a US economic downturn. However, both German April exports and industrial production fell short of expectations earlier, reflecting that the growth momentum may be slowing. On the brighter side, The EU's GDP was revised upward to a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter growth, mainly due to Germany's Q1 growth adjustment from 0.2% to 0.4%. Defence stocks suffered on Friday, with Rheinmetall, Renk Group, and Hensoldt falling up to 6.7%. Other notable decliners included Volkswagen, Porsche, Zalando, and Symrise, dropping between 1.1% and 1.7%.
• HK - The Hang Seng dropped 0.5%, to finish at 23,793 on Friday, breaking a three-day winning streak mainly due to tech sector losses. The Hang Seng mirrored Wall Street's negative session, influenced by a Trump-Musk dispute and renewed US-China trade concerns. Today, US and Chinese negotiators meet in London for the second round of talks with rare-earth exports a priority topic for US. Some investors held off pending key Chinese economic data, including CPI, PPI, and trade figures set for release today. Top decliners included Trip.com Group (-3.3%), Alibaba Health IT (-2.8%), Longfor Group Holdings (-2.8%), and BYD (-2.2%).

Earnings this week:

• Tuesday: GameStop, GitLab
• Wednesday: Chewy, Oracle
• Thursday: Adobe

FX:

• USD strengthened at the week's end, buoyed by the US jobs report showing a headline figure of 139k, above expectations of 130k. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, and wage growth surpassed forecasts, leading the DXY to peak at 99.36.
• Japan's GDP remained unchanged in Q1 2025, improving from the initially estimated 0.2% contraction, but significantly slowing from the 0.6% growth in Q4. Japan's government is advocating for a review of US tariffs, while a former top FX diplomat suggested that a narrowing US-Japan rate gap could support the JPY at around 135-140 against the USD by year-end. USDJPY traded near 144.70 level.
• ECB's recent decision prompted several comments, including confirmation from Holzmann as the expected dissenter. EURUSD traded near 1.14 level.
• Canada unexpectedly added jobs in May, with the unemployment rate rising to 7.0% as anticipated. USDCAD traded near 1.37 level.
• SNB President Schlegel expressed support for the government's banking stability proposals, responding to UBS's additional USD 26 billion capital requirement under Swiss proposals. This had little impact on the Swiss Franc, with USDCHF trading around 0.8220.
• Economic data – China Inflation Rate, China PPI, China Balance of Trade, US Wholesales Inventories, US Consumer Inflation Expectations

Commodities:

• Oil prices steadied after a weekly rise, as renewed US-China trade talks offered a chance to ease global tensions. Brent crude stayed above $66 after a 4% gain last week, while WTI was near $65. Negotiators from both countries will meet in London on Monday.
• Gold steadied after a 2% loss, as US-China talks offered hope for easing tensions. Bullion traded above $3,306 an ounce following a drop due to positive US jobs data. Negotiators will meet in London, focusing on China's rare earths production.

Fixed income:

• On Friday, Treasuries fell sharply after the May jobs report exceeded expectations for payrolls and earnings growth. Front-end and belly tenors led the selloff, as hopes for Fed rate cuts faded, flattening the yield curve. Spread dropped below its 50-day moving average for the first time since February. The 10-year yield reached 4.51% in late trading, its highest since 29 May. Additionally, Japanese investors sold the largest amount of German sovereign bonds in a decade in April, as shown by recent balance-of-payments data.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.