Global Market Quick Take: Asia – July 15, 2025

Key points:

• Macro: Trump threatens 100% tariffs on Russia and imposes 17% on Mexican tomatoes
• Equities:US stocks rise; FTSE 100 hits record despite Europe losses amid tariff concerns
• FX: USD strengthens amid tariff threats on EU, Mexico, Russia
• Commodities: WTI fell 2.1% below $67 after Trump's 100% tariff threat on Russia-linked trade
• Fixed income: Japan's 10-year bond yield rose to 1.595%, a peak since 2008

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• The spotlight is on the June consumer price index, which may reveal the inflation effects of Trump's tariffs and influence expectations for future interest rate changes. Geopolitical uncertainty increased as Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Russia if a Ukraine peace agreement isn't achieved in 50 days.
• The U.S. Commerce Department announced a 17.09% duty on fresh tomatoes from Mexico, following withdrawal from a 2019 antidumping duty suspension agreement.
• China's exports grew 5.8% year-on-year to USD 325.2 billion in June 2025, surpassing the expected 5.0% rise and accelerating from 4.8% in May. Rare-earth exports increased by 32% month-on-month, suggesting progress in easing restrictions and restoring global supply.
• PBoC Deputy Governor Zou Lan stated they will maintain a loose monetary policy to achieve the FY growth target, enhance structural tools for key sectors, and refine the market-based rate system.

Equities: 

• US - U.S. stocks edged up as investors balanced Trump's 30% tariff threats with optimism over earnings and inflation data. The S&P 500 rose 0.1%, Dow added 88 points, and Nasdaq gained 0.3%, helped by Meta and Netflix. Anticipation builds for Q2 earnings from banks and June's CPI report. Tesla climbed 1% on news of a shareholder vote on xAI investment.
• EU - FTSE 100 rose over 0.5% to reach nearly 9000, setting a new record and outperforming other European indices impacted by Trump’s 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico. Gains were driven by safe-haven and pharmaceutical stocks, with Fresnillo up over 2% due to rising precious metal prices and AstraZeneca climbing approximately 2% after successful hypertension drug trial results. Conversely, Shell and BP fell more than 1% as crude prices declined amid trade tension concerns.
• HK – HSI gained 0.3% to 24,203, driven by strong Chinese trade data, with exports up 5.8% in June and new yuan loans accelerating. Gains were restrained by caution ahead of China’s Q2 GDP data. Consumer and tech stocks drove market gains, with significant increases from Kuaishou Tech (3.5%), JD Health Intl. (3.4%), Hansoh Pharma (3.3%), and Pop Mart Intl. (2.1%).

Earnings this week:

• Tuesday: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), State Street (STT), BNY Mellon (BK), Ericsson (ERIC).
• Wednesday: ASML Holding (ASML), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), United Airlines (UAL), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Morgan Stanley (MS).
• Thursday: Netflix (NFLX), TSMC (TSM), PepsiCo (PEP), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Interactive Brokers (IBKR).
• Friday: 3M (MMM), American Express (AXP), Charles Schwab (SCHW).

FX:

• USD gained slightly amid tariff updates, including Trump's 30% tariff threats on the EU and Mexico, alongside a 100% tariff announcement on Russia pending a peace deal with Ukraine in 50 days. Markets viewed the delay as less severe than expected. Focus shifts to upcoming CPI data.
• EUR softened after failing to below 1.1680, with the ECB reportedly set to discuss a more negative scenario due to tariff threats, while rate cut talks are deferred to September.
• GBP weakened below 1.3440 alongside cyclical currencies as anticipation grows for Chancellor Reeves's Tuesday speech outlining financial services reforms and pension reviews.
• JPY continued to weaken, with USDJPY nearing 148.
• Economic calendar – China GDP Growth Rate, China Industrial Production, China Retail Sales, EU Industrial Production, EU ZEW Economic Sentiment, Canada Inflation Rate, US Inflation Rate, US CPI

Commodities:

• Oil steadied after a 2% slump on Monday as Trump's plan to pressure Russia avoided immediate action against its energy exports. WTI traded near $67, Brent near $69. Trump threatened 100% tariffs in 50 days, possibly affecting nations buying Russian oil, like India and China.
• Silver fell from a nearly 14-year high as the dollar strengthened following Trump's trade tensions with the EU and Mexico. Silver dropped 0.5% to $38.23 an ounce, having risen 32% this year, outperforming gold's 27% gain.

Fixed income:

• Treasuries closed with yields slightly higher; 30-year yields rose 2bp, nearing 5%—last seen in early June. Traders focused on tonight’s CPI data, predicted to reveal tariff impacts and raise market rates. A curve-steepening selloff in Japanese bonds affected global markets. Five- to 30-year yields exceeded Friday's highs, anticipating corporate bond supply. Short-term rates nearly priced in two Fed rate cuts this year. Japan's 10-year bond yield rose 2.5bps to 1.595%, its highest since 2008, due to fiscal spending concerns ahead of the July 20 upper house election.

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