Everything is perfect
Chief Economist & CIO
Summary: I have done the first macro presentation for 2020 and to my own surprise it ended up being titled: Everything is perfect...
Maybe the color and motive of front-page of the presentation gives away, the “slight irony involved:
There is for my money a big risk we are in a “false positive” period of macro, because looking at 2019 – Everything was Perfect:
T.I.N.A became the most powerful woman :)
Both monetary & fiscal policy reversed course and FED – as is often the case these days- panicked on REPO
SNB meanwhile continues to expand its balance sheet massively, but every time they intervene they make the CHF stronger not weaker why? TINA of course!
There is a “hope” we have hand-over for “growth stimulus” from US to rest of world, and when we say rest of world we mean China. China’s GDP in $-terms contracted last year, which meant slow global growth, this year starts with a bang – USDCNY is down, meaning GROWTH is up in the rest of world supporting commodities...
Finally – we and our advisors all agree two things matters in 2020:
The US election and most importantly, the direction of the Dollar. IF they dollar does not weaken we will get RECESSION, if it “helps” by being weaker world could recreate a new okay year for equities. What will it be?
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Energy crisis could turn energy stocks into secular winnerWith long-term expected returns for the global energy sector close to 10%, we look at 40 stocks that could be set to cash in.
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.