Chief Investment Officer
Summary: I have done the first macro presentation for 2020 and to my own surprise it ended up being titled: Everything is perfect...
Maybe the color and motive of front-page of the presentation gives away, the “slight irony involved:
There is for my money a big risk we are in a “false positive” period of macro, because looking at 2019 – Everything was Perfect:
T.I.N.A became the most powerful woman :)
Both monetary & fiscal policy reversed course and FED – as is often the case these days- panicked on REPO
SNB meanwhile continues to expand its balance sheet massively, but every time they intervene they make the CHF stronger not weaker why? TINA of course!
There is a “hope” we have hand-over for “growth stimulus” from US to rest of world, and when we say rest of world we mean China. China’s GDP in $-terms contracted last year, which meant slow global growth, this year starts with a bang – USDCNY is down, meaning GROWTH is up in the rest of world supporting commodities...
Finally – we and our advisors all agree two things matters in 2020:
The US election and most importantly, the direction of the Dollar. IF they dollar does not weaken we will get RECESSION, if it “helps” by being weaker world could recreate a new okay year for equities. What will it be?
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
