Head of Macro Analysis
Credit Impulse in the euro area is slightly negative. Due to the very high correlation with final domestic demand (R^2 0.86), we can expect growth to slow down significantly in the next nine to 12 months.
In addition, a simple model of MCI (Monetary Conditions index) based on variables reflecting interest rates, money growth, exchange rates and unconventional measures, confirms that monetary conditions are deteriorating. The impact will likely be more important in PIIGS than in core countries. It is not alarming yet but it is certainly something that the governing council of the European Central Bank will monitor closely in the coming months. From my viewpoint, the next ECB president (German or not) will have no other choice than to think about easing monetary policy rather than tightening.
The market is trying to get back to the pre-Covid and pre-war times, but that model is broken. A new dawn is here and the financial world needs to adapt.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
A political switch in China towards less tough control of its people and companies may kick things back into gear.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
While the economic situation in Europe may not be as bad as feared, there's still a plethora of things to fix.
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
As the world turns increasingly bipolar, equity markets face harsh times as they transition into the new reality.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
New alliances and collaborations outside of China may lead to prosperous times in Asia.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
For years, it was thought that the balanced portfolio was a thing of the past. But recent developments may have changed that.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
Following a dramatic and volatile 2022 with good returns, a lot of this year's commodity performance may be driven by Chinese politics.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
2023 could be a tough year for currencies but EUR and JPY may have some upside.
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
The commodity-heavy Australian market may have a good start to 2023, as the Chinese focus on growth signals demand for Aussie resources.
Jessica Amir,
Market Strategist
From a near-perfect environment for speculative assets before 2022 to the opposite, crypto faces fundamental challenges.
Mads Eberhardt,
Cryptocurrency Analyst
