China Updates: Things to watch at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party China Updates: Things to watch at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party China Updates: Things to watch at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party

China Updates: Things to watch at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party

Macro
Redmond Wong

Market Strategist, Greater China

Summary:  The Chinese Communist Party is holding its once every five years National Congress starting on Sunday, Oct 16. The key things to watch will be General Secretary Xi’s speech and delivery of the 19th Central Committee’s Work Report which will give investors a glimpse of Chinese leadership’s assessment of the world and the current state of the country and its policy priorities for China for the next five years. On Oct 23, investors will learn about who will be among the top leadership for the next five years in China from the decisions of the 1st plenary session of the newly elected 20th Central Committee.


The Chinese Communist Party’s (the “CCP”) 20th National Congress will convene this Sunday, Oct 16. A total of around 2,300 delegates of CCP members from all over China will gather in Beijing to attend this once every five years important political event to approve the review and approve the Work Report of the 19th Central Committee, to elect the members of the 20th Central Committee and the members of the 20th Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, and to amend the CCP’s constitution.

The Work Report of the 19th Central Committee presented on Sunday, Oct 16

The Central Committee is the de jure highest official body of the CCP and its Work Report was written by a drafting team under the Standing Committee of the Politburo and supervised directly by General Secretary Xi Jinping. The Work Report reviews and gives the CCP top leadership’s assessment of the work in the past five years and most importantly, the directions of policy priorities for the next five years. On Sunday, Oct 16, Xi will make a speech and presents the Work Report to the 20th National Congress.

While there is speculation among some analysts looking for a shift in policy priorities away from stability and national security to economic growth, we are skeptical of this view. Over the past 10 years, Xi has laid out his grand vision of the future of China and the blueprint of how to get there. For his incoming third 5-year term in the most powerful position in China, the general secretary of the CCP, we see no reason for him to change course or make substantial adjustments to the fundamental principles and strategies he has cultivated over the past decade. The Work Report will likely affirm Xi’s “holistic national security concept” in foreign policy, the “dual circulation” and “common prosperity” in the new development paradigm, and "Dynamic Zero-COVID" in pandemic control as the strategies going forward. 

The amendment of the party constitution and election of the members of the 20th Central Committee next Saturday, Oct 22

The 20th National Congress is scheduled to adjourn next Saturday, Oct 22.  On that day, the delegates will, among other things vote on the amendment to the CCP’s constitution.  Little is made known about the details of the proposed amendments but the general expectation is that the amendments will be about cementing further Xi’s core leadership position and the role of Xi Jinping’s thoughts in the CCP’s constitution.  The delegate will also vote on approving the Work Report. 

One of the highlights of the last day of the National Congress is for the 2,300 delegates to elect 205 full members and 171 alternate members to the 20th Central Committee who will in turn vote on who will get into the top leadership on the following day.

Deciding on the constituency of the Politburo and its Standing Committee, the Central Military Commission, and the Central Secretariat next Sunday, Oct 23

On Sunday, Oct 23, the newly elected 20th Central Committee will hold its 1st plenary session. In this session, the Central Committee will elect members to the CCP’s 25-member Politburo and its 7-member Standing Committee who will exercise the power of the Central Committee when the Central Committee is in recess. The Standing Committee of the Politburo will collectively reign over China in the coming five years. 

The Central Committee will also elect the General Secretary of the CCP, the members of the Central Secretariat, and the Central Military Commission and its Chairman. It is expected Xi will be elected to remain in his positions as General Secretary of the CCP and as Chairman of the Central Military Commission.

The state positions are not on the agenda of the CCP’s National Congress

The 20th National Congress is an event of the CCP, not of the state.  The state positions of the President of the People’s Republic of China, Premier and Vice Premiers of the State Council will not be decided in the 20th National Congress or the subsequent first plenary session of the 20th Central Committee.  The nomination of those positions will be decided in the 2nd plenary session of the 20th Central Committee which is expected to be held in February 2023 and the nomination will need to be taken to the National People’s Congress for approval in March 2023.

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region

Singapore
Singapore

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.