Asia Market Quick Take – September 30, 2025

Asia Market Quick Take – September 30, 2025 

Key points:  

• Macro: US govt shuts down 1^st October if no is deal reached 
• Equities:  US equities higher despite tariffs, shutdown and incoming labour data 
• FX: JPY strengthens after BoJ signalled a growing need for a hike 
• Commodities: Gold hit a record above $3,800; WTI slid to $63 
• Fixed income: Treasuries firmed, tracking gilt-led European gains 

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.  

 Macro:  

• In August 2025, U.S. pending home sales surged 4% from the previous month, erasing back-to-back declines, with increases in the West (5%), Midwest (8.7%), South (3.1%), and Northeast (1.1%). NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributed the rebound to lower mortgage rates boosting buyer activity. Sales also rose 3.8% compared to the previous year.
• BoJ board members discussed the potential for raising interest rates soon, with one suggesting it might be a suitable time.
• Japan's retail sales in August 2025 fell by 1.1% year-on-year, marking the first decline since February 2022 and missing the expected 1% increase. Declines were seen in automobiles, non-store retailers, fuel, and department stores, while other categories like machinery, pharmaceuticals, and textiles saw gains. Monthly sales also dropped by 1.1%.
• Market participants are monitoring the risk of a US government shutdown, which may delay key economic data, like Friday's nonfarm payroll report, and create uncertainty about Federal Reserve rate-cut decisions. Bloomberg reports that the BLS plans to halt all operations and withhold economic data if a government shutdown occurs. 

Equities:  

• US - Equities started the week higher despite headwinds from tariff uncertainty, shutdown risks and looming data. The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, led by consumer discretionary and tech, while energy lagged as crude fell on expectations of a November OPEC+ output hike. Robinhood Markets outperformed on anticipated strength in event‑contract volumes. The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.4% and the Dow added 0.2%. Electronic Arts reportedly agreed to a record leveraged buyout by investors including a firm managed by Jared Kushner and Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund. Jefferies Financial Group posted record fiscal third‑quarter revenue. 
• Japan - Japan’s stock benchmarks eased in early trade as the 1 October US shutdown deadline loomed. The Topix slipped 0.2% to 3,123.87, while the Nikkei fell 0.2% to 44,960.68. Toyota was the biggest drag on the Topix, down 1.2%. Market breadth showed 459 advancers, 1,125 decliners and 89 unchanged out of 1,673 constituents. 
• Hong Kong - HSI gained 495 points (1.9%) to 26,322 on Monday, rebounding from two days of losses. Optimism arose from China's central bank policy coordination promises, Goldman Sachs’s forecast of Q4 rate cuts, and a rise in Chinese industrial profits. Caution remained ahead of October holidays. Top performers included Zhaoijin Mining and UBTech Robotics. Zijin Gold International will debut in Hong Kong after the overseas arm of China’s largest miner raised $3.2 billion in the biggest IPO since May. Huawei plans to ramp up production of its most advanced AI chips over the next year. BYD cut its 2025 sales target to 4.6 million from 5.5 million units amid tough market conditions, confirmed by Li Yunfei, its director of branding and public relations, the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported Monday. 

Earnings this week: 

• Tuesday – LambWeston's, UNFI, Paychex, Nike
• Wednesday – AcuityBrands, Conagra, Rezolve, Novagold, Cal-Maine Foods, RPM
• Thursday – Angiodynamics
• Friday – N/A 

FX: 

• The yen outperformed G10 peers, with USDJPY down 0.6% to 148.60 after BOJ board member Asahi Noguchi signalled a growing need for a rate hike, broadening support for action. The yen held overnight gains as the dollar softened amid US shutdown risks and rising expectations of BOJ tightening. One‑week risk reversals shifted in favour of the dollar for the first time since July as investors positioned ahead of the LDP leadership decision on Saturday.  
• EURUSD rose 0.2% to 1.1729, while GBPUSD gained 0.3% to 1.3436 after Chancellor Rachel Reeves ruled out a UK wealth tax.  
• USDCHF slipped 0.1% to 0.7974, and Switzerland offered to invest in the US gold‑refining industry to encourage the Trump administration to reduce the 39% import tariff imposed last month. 
• AUDUSD climbed 0.6% to 0.6579, its biggest gain since 11 September, and later steadied near 0.6576 ahead of Tuesday’s RBA decision; all 33 economists expect the overnight call rate to remain at 3.6%, with focus on the statement and press conference for guidance on November, where a cut is still slightly favoured. Australian 10‑year bonds rose. 

Commodities: 

• Oil fell as signs of an OPEC+ output hike in November tempered last week’s rally. WTI slid 3.4% to settle near $63 a barrel—its biggest drop since June—while Brent closed below $70. The Saudi-led alliance is weighing an increase of at least the 137,000 barrels a day already scheduled for next month, according to people familiar with the plans. 
• Gold hit a record above $3,800 an ounce as precious metals rallied, buoyed by a weaker dollar and the prospect of a US government shutdown. Bullion rose up to 2% to an all-time high of $3,833.59, surpassing last Tuesday’s peak after six consecutive weekly gains. Silver climbed as much as 2.4% hitting $47.18, highest since April 2011 while platinum and palladium also advanced, supported by tight markets and inflows into metal-backed ETFs. 

Fixed income:  

• Treasuries firmed mirroring strength in European bonds—led by gilts—and drawing support from lower oil prices. A couple of large block sales in 5-year note futures failed to disrupt the long-end-led decline in yields. Anticipation of month-end rebalancing reinforced a bull flattening into Tuesday, while the risk of a US government shutdown from Wednesday shaped positioning. Gilts’ early rally, after UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves reaffirmed fiscal rules and ruled out a wealth tax, helped underpin Treasuries. 

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